Data en Vancouver vs Toronto

Teams Vancouver Whitecaps Toronto FC played so far 16 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps won 6 direct matches.Toronto FC won 7 matches.3 matches ended in a draw.On average in direct matches both teams scored a 3.38 goals per Match. Vancouver Whitecaps in actual season average scored 1.21 goals per match. In 5 (100.00%) matches played at home was total goals (team and opponent) Over 1.5 goals. The official source for Toronto open data from City divisions and agencies. Explore datasets through data visualizations, data stories, blog articles and more. Gallery. Discover ways that the City as well as members of the public make use of open data to help create services, tell stories and develop applications. Match Information. Teams: Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Toronto FC. Location: BMO Field, Toronto. Date and Time: August 18th, 8:00 pm EST, 5:00 pm PST. Watching: TSN (in Canada) & MLS Live on ESPN+ (in US) Full cost of living comparison of Toronto vs Vancouver. Prices and comparisons for the whole range of expenses: food, housing, going out, etc. Updated on Sep 2020. Full cost of living comparison of Vancouver vs Toronto. Prices and comparisons for the whole range of expenses: food, housing, going out, etc. Updated on Sep 2020. What Students Are Saying “ I took the 10-week Data Analytics course in-person in Vancouver, BC and had a great experience. My instructors, Raymond Kwok and Lauren Bates, were very approachable and provided helpful answers to questions. They also have a passion for data and have relevant industry experience, which was greatly beneficial. CaviWipes vs. the Competition: Flammability. Proper cleaning prior to disinfection with CaviWipes. Images. CaviWipes canister. CaviWipes Flat Pack. Circle of Care. CaviWipes can be used to disinfect surfaces across all the critical touch points in the Circle of Care. The diversity of uses and benefits makes this product uniquely favorable in ... Venue BC Place Stadium (Vancouver, British Columbia) L. Cavallini 17' (assist by Ali Adnan ) 1 - 0 1 - 1 25' J. Osorio (assist by Pozuelo ) Data from Canada’s real estate boards shows the average price of all residential real estate in Toronto was $618,202 in July, compared to $700,500 in Vancouver. Toronto climate summary The Toronto lies on 105m above sea level Here, the climate is cold and temperate. Toronto is a city with a significant rainfall. Even in the driest month there is a lot of rain. This location is classified as Dfb by Köppen and Geiger. The temperature here averages 8.3 °C 47.0 °F. The annual rainfall is 785 mm 30.9 ...

Betting Against the House? Canadian Real Estate Through the Pandemic

2020.09.14 17:00 AwesomeMathUse Betting Against the House? Canadian Real Estate Through the Pandemic

BMO
Robert Kavcic, Director and Senior Economist
Dated September 11th, 2020


Chart 1 - What Correction?

Chart 2 - Lower Pay = Bigger Job Losses

Chart 3 - Government Income Support

Chart 4 - Debt Dynamics Change

Chart 5 - More Pent-Up Demand to Meet

Chart 6 - Sound Payment History
submitted by AwesomeMathUse to econmonitor [link] [comments]


2020.08.09 15:11 JauneSiriusWhut Porsche GT3 RS special!

As mentioned before in the Porsche special, there were just too many GT3 RSs spotted, so this is a special dedicated to them.

996 GT3 RS
2008
Düsseldorf - White/Red
2011
Hong Kong - White/Blue
2014
(Import dealer, but awesome find) Dallas - 2014
2015
Yokohama - White/Red

997 GT3 RS Mk1
2009
Ketton - Black
Singapore - Green
Hong Kong - Orange
2011
Hong Kong - Green
Miami Beach - White
2012
Los Angeles - Black
London - White
2013
Southampton - Orange
2014
Edmonton - Black
Rotterdam - Orange
2015
Yokohama - Green
Tokyo - Green
2016
Moscow - White
2017
Nashville - Black
Glendale - Green
Moscow - Orange
Moscow - Orange
2018
Singapore - Green
Tokyo - Orange
Miami Beach - White
2019
Singapore - Green

997 GT3 RS Mk2
2011
Beverly Hills - Grey
2012
Dallas - Grey
London - White
2013
Singapore - White
2014
Nice - Grey
Boca Raton - Grey
2015
Singapore - Blue
2016
Cernobbio - Black
Boca Raton - Blue
Miami Beach - Grey
2017
Enfield Town - Orange
Singapore - White
2018
Singapore - White
2019
Toronto - Blue
Singapore - Grey
Singapore - Grey
Singapore - White
Penarth - White

997 GT3 RS 4.0
2015
Tokyo - White
2019
Singapore - Black

991 GT3 RS Mk1
2015
London - Red
2016
Cernobbio - Blue
England - Purple
Los Angeles - Purple
Boca Raton - Purple
Golden Beach - Purple
Miami Beach - Purple
Moscow - Red
Toronto - Silver
Miami - Silver
Nagoya - White
London - White
Kuala Lumpur - White
2017
Cannes - Blue
Taipei - Green
London - Grey
London - Purple
Malibu - Purple
Portland - Purple
London - Red
Taipei - Red
Los Angeles - Red
Dallas - Red
London - Silver
La Baule-Escoublac - Silver
Riccione - Silver
Breda - Silver
London - White
London - White
Hong Kong - White
Hong Kong - White
Golden Beach - White
Miami Beach - White
2018
London - Blue
Calabasas - Blue
Los Angeles - Grey
Beverly Hills - Orange
Edmonton - Red
Laval - Red
Ottowa - Red
Richmond - Red
Vancouver - Red
Ernolsheim-Bruche - Red
Kuala Lumpur - Red
Kuala Lumpur - Red
Singapore - Red
Brasschaat - Silver
Seoul - White
Scottsdale - White
Mercer Island - White
2019
Vancouver - Flowers
Sydney - Orange
Aventura - Orange
Toronto - Purple
London - Purple
Hong Kong - Purple
Hong Kong - Purple
Singapore - Purple
Boston - Purple
Halifax - Red
Hof - Red
Taipei - Red
Taipei - Red
West Hollywood - Red
Singapore - Silver
Stamford - Silver
Greenwich - Silver
Overland Park - Silver
London - White
London - White
Hong Kong - White
Italy - White
Auckland - White
2020
Newport Beach - Orange
Tokyo - Orange
San Diego - White

991 GT3 RS Mk2
2018
Hof (2x) - Black & Red
Sydney - Black
Cap-d'Ail - Green
2019
Sydney - Black
Vancouver - Black
Vaughan - Black
Lighthouse Point - Black
Richmond - Blue
Vaughan - Blue
Prague - Green
Cuffley - Green
Hong Kong - Green
Nieuwegein - Green
Fort Lauderdale - Green
Miami - Red
Singapore - Silver
Fort Lauderdale - Silver
Dallas - Silver
Houston - Silver
Montreal - White
Toronto - White
Bourg-lès-Valence - White
Salaise-sur-Sanne (probably the same as above) - White
Hong Kong - White
Auckland - White
Scottsdale - White
Hialeah - White
Bayside - White
Richmond Hill - Yellow
Vancouver - Yellow
2020
Los Angeles - Black
Newport Beach - Green
Tokyo - Grey
submitted by JauneSiriusWhut to StreetviewCarSpotting [link] [comments]


2020.06.29 11:10 Dr_Sargunz Due Diligence: Toromont Industries Ltd. - Building Together For An Exciting Future

Due Diligence: Toromont Industries Ltd. - Building Together For An Exciting Future
Hi,
This is my first attempt at writing a DD report. I hope it makes sense.
Just a few cautionary words:
  • Grammar (and English in general) is not a skill of mine. There will be a few parts that you might have to decipher, good luck.
  • I tried not to provide too much commentary and stick to the facts. I know you are spending your valuable time reading this and you probably don't want to listen to some random guy on the internet pontificate.
  • For those of you who are easily offended/triggered, can't take a joke, or sarcasm isn't your taste, DO NOT click the spoilers.
Lastly, the following is just my findings, by no means is it a representation of all the information out there. It is just the baseline for me to have confidence in becoming an owner of the Company. Do your own due diligence or talk to a financial advisor to find what is best for you and your financial situation.
Happy reading!

Highlights

  • Over the last 5 years the stock price has more than doubled.
  • Toromont dominates market share over everything east of Manitoba in Canada.
  • Customer base is heavily diversified, giving the Company many opportunities to expand into multiple industries.
  • Dividend has increased for 31 consecutive years. It has been paid for 52 consecutive years
  • The management team is extremely knowledgeable and have a good track record

Introduction

Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSE:TIH) provides specialized equipment in Canada and the United States. The Company operates two business segments: The Equipment Group and CIMCO. The Equipment Group supplies specialized mobile equipment and industrial engines for Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT). Customers for this business segment vary from infrastructure contractors, residential and commercial contractors, mining companies, forestry companies, pulp and paper producers, general contractors, utilities, municipalities, marine companies, waste handling companies, and agricultural enterprises. CIMCO offers design, engineering, fabrication, and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems.
The Company was founded in 1961 and operates out of Concord, Ontario. As at December 31, 2019, Toromont employed over 6,500 people in more than 150 locations across central/eastern Canada and the upper eastern United States.
The primary objective of the Company is to build shareholder value through sustainable and profitable growth, supported by a strong financial foundation.

Description of the 2 Main Business Segments

  1. The Equipment Group includes the following 6 business units:
  • Toromont CAT: one of the world’s largest Caterpillar dealerships which supplies, rents, and provides product support services for specialized mobile equipment and industrial engines
  • Battlefield Equipment Rentals: supplies and rents specialized mobile equipment as well as specialty supplies and tools.
  • Toromont Material Handling: supplies, rents, and provides product support services for material handling lift trucks
  • AgWest: an agricultural equipment and solutions dealer representing AGCO, CLAAS and other manufacturers’ products
  • SITECH: provides Trimble Inc (NASDAQ:TRMB technology products and services. Trimble is a SaaS company that provides positioning, modeling, connectivity, and data analytics software which enable customers to improve productivity, quality, safety, and sustainability. Target industries: land survey, construction, agriculture, transportation, telecommunications, asset tracking, mapping, railways, utilities, mobile resource management, and government.)
  • Toromont Energy: supplies, constructs, and operates high efficiency power plants up to 50 MW, using Caterpillar's leading power generation technologies. Toromont Energy operates plants that supply energy to hospitals, district energy systems, and industrial processes.
  • Performance in this segment mainly depends on the activity in several industries: road building and other infrastructure-related activities, mining, residential and commercial construction, power generation, aggregates, waste management, steel, forestry, and agriculture.
  • Revenues are driven by the sale, rental, and servicing of mobile equipment for Caterpillar and other manufacturers to the industries listed above.
  • In addition, Toromont is the MaK engine dealer for the Eastern seaboard of the United States, from Maine to Virginia.
  • MaK engine is a marine diesel engine manufactured by Caterpillar
  1. CIMCO is a market leader in the design, engineering, fabrication, installation and after-sale support of refrigeration systems
  • Performance in this segment is dependent on the activity in several industries: beverage and food processing, cold storage, food distribution, mining, and recreational ice rinks.
  • CIMCO has manufacturing facilities in Canada and the United States and sells its solutions globally.
  • CIMCO services the ice rinks of 23 out of 31 NHL teams. So if you are watching a game and the ice is shitty, you know who to blame… the Ice Girls, obviously.
  • For those of you who live in the GTA and have skated on The Barbara Ann Scott Ice Trail at College Park, the trail was created using CIMCO proprietary CO2 refrigeration technology.

Management

CEO, Scott J. Medhurst has been with the company since 1988. He was appointed President of Toromont CAT in 2004 and he came into his current position as President and CEO in 2012. He is a graduate of Toromont’s Management Trainee Program.
CFO, Mike McMillan joined the executive team in March of 2020. His predecessor, Paul Jewer is retiring this year and has been working with McMillan during the transition period.
VP and COO, Michael Chuddy has been with Toromont since 1995.
On average, leaders have 29 years of business experience and have served at Toromont for 19 years. Seeing long tenures, good stock performance, excellent business planning and execution is usually a sign of strong leadership. In addition, insiders hold more than 3% (~$175 million) of the company’s outstanding shares. Medhurst owns more than 170 thousand shares, Chuddy owns just under 100 thousand shares and the former CEO and current Independent Chairman of Board of Directors, Robert Ogilvie owns more than 2 million shares, making him the 4th largest stockholder. High insider ownership typically signals confidence in a company's prospects. Compare this to Toromont’s main Canadian competitor, Finning, where insiders own less than 0.4% ($12 million) of the company (this number varies depending on where you look, I just took the highest one I found).
Recently insiders have been selling stock (Figure 1). I cannot speak to the reasons why insiders are selling but the remaining position owned by the insider is sizable and demonstrates that the executive still has confidence in the company. Some of the reasons insiders sell are: they don't believe in the company’s future, they need money for personal use, they are rebalancing their portfolio, among others.
Figure 1: Buy and selling activity of insiders (the data is from MarketBeat, so take that for what it's worth).
On a somewhat unrelated but still related note, 50% of Toromont employees are also shareholders.

Growth Strategies

Toromont has five growth strategies (expand markets, strengthen product support, broaden product offerings, invest in resources, and maintain a strong financial position). I chose to focus on the following two strategies, as they seemed most prevalent.
  1. Expand Markets
  • Toromont serves a wide variety of end markets: mining, road building, power generation, infrastructure, agriculture, and refrigeration. This allows for many opportunities for growth while staying true to their core competency. Further expansion into new markets doesn't require Toromont to build a whole new business model or learn the intricacies of the new industry because their products stays the same. Thus, the main concern is the application/selection of the products for the customer.
  • Expansion is generally incremental. Each business unit focuses on market share growth and when the right opportunity presents itself, geographic expansion is archived through acquisitions.
  1. Strengthening Product Support
  • In an industry where price competition is high, product support activities represent opportunities to develop closer relationships with customers and differentiate Toromont’s product and service offering from competitors. After-market support is an integral part of the customer's decision-making process when purchasing equipment.
  • Product support revenues are more consistent and profitable.

Growth Through Acquisition

Rapid growth in this industry is generally driven through acquisitions. Toromont has gone through multiple acquisitions since the 90’s:
  • Acquisition of the Battlefield Equipment Rentals in 1996
    • Toromont grew Battlefield from one location to 82 locations
  • Acquisition of two privately held agricultural dealerships in Manitoba to form AgWest Equipment Ltd
  • Acquisition of Hewitt Group of companies in Q3 2017 for a total consideration of $1.0177 billion
    • $917.7 million cash ($750 million of which was finances through unsecured debt) plus the issuance of 2.25 million Toromont shares (equating to $100 million based on the 10 day average share price)
Acquisition of Hewitt Group of companies
This acquisition allowed Toromont to make headway into the Quebec, Western Labrador, and Maritime markets, as Hewitt was the authorized Caterpillar dealer of these regions. Hewitt was also the Caterpillar lift truck dealer of Quebec and most of Ontario and the MaK marine engine dealer for Québec, the Maritimes, and the Eastern seaboard of the United States (from Maine to Virginia).
Toromont had total assets of $1.51 billion before the acquisition, the acquisition added $1.024 billion in assets, nearly doubling the balance sheet (look at Figure 2 for more details about the acquisition).
Figure 2: (all numbers are in thousands) The final allocation of the purchase price was as of Dec 31, 2018, Note 25 of 2018 Annual Report. $1.024 billion was added to the Toromont’s B/S
Large acquisitions like this one can be the downfall of a company. Here are some of the risks highlighted by management at the time of the acquisition:
  • Potential for liabilities assumed in the acquisition to exceed our estimates or for material undiscovered liabilities in the Hewitt Business
  • Changes in consumer and business confidence as a result of the change in ownership
  • Potential for third parties to terminate or alter their agreements or relationships with Toromont as a result of the acquisition
  • Whether the operations, systems, management, and cultures of Hewitt and Toromont can be integrated in an efficient and effective manner
In 2018, the Company started and successfully completed the integration of the Maritime dealerships acquired through Hewitt under Toromont’s decentralized branch model (bottom up approach). Under a decentralized model, regional leadership make business decisions based on local conditions, rather than taking top down mandates. A bottom up approach is an advantage in businesses like Toromont where the customer mix can vary vastly from region to region. It allows for decision-making that is better aligned with customemarket needs and more attuned to the key performance indicators used to manage the business. In 2019, the integration of the decentralized branch model was implemented in Quebec after its success in Atlantic Canada in 2018. Successful integration of Hewitt into the Toromont family shows the depth of industry and business knowledge possessed by the management team. Being able to maintain inherited customer relationships and ensure low turnover is no easy feat. Many companies have completely botched these kinds of acquisitions. One that comes to mind is Sobeys (the second largest food retailer in Canada) acquiring Safeway for $5.8 billion. Three years later, they wrote off $2.9 billion as a loss because they did not anticipate the differences in consumer habits in Western Canada vs Eastern Canada, among other oversights.
The result of the acquisition and Hewitt’s integration with Toromont’s existing business produced a 39% increase in EPS in 2018 and 14% increase in 2019.

Dividend

Toromont pays a quarterly dividend and has historically targeted a dividend rate that approximates 30 - 40% of trailing earnings from continuing operations.
In February 2020 the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend by 14.8% to $0.31 per share. This marked the 31st consecutive year of increasing dividends and 52nd consecutive year of making a dividend payment. The five-year dividend-growth rate is 12.09%.
Table 1: Information about the last eight dividends

Risks/Threats and Mitigation

Dependency on Caterpillar Inc.
It goes without saying that Toromont’s future is heavily dependent on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT). For those who don't know, Caterpillar is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It has a market cap in excess of $68 billion. All purchases made by Toromont must be made from Caterpillar. This agreement has been standing since 1993 and can be terminated by either side with 90 days notice.
Given that the vast majority of Toromont’s inventory is Caterpillar products, Caterpillar’s brand strength and market acceptance are essential factors for Toromont’s continued success. I would say that the probability of either of these being damaged to an unrecoverable point are low, but at the beginning of this year, I would have said the probability of the world coming to a complete stop was very low too and look at what happened. Anything is possible. The reason this is a major consideration is because it's a going concern issue. Going conference is an accounting term for a company that has the resources needed to continue operating indefinitely until it provides evidence to the contrary. This term also refers to a company's ability to make enough money to stay afloat or to avoid bankruptcy. If there was irrevocable damage to Caterpillar’s brand, Toromont is no longer a going concern, meaning the company would most likely be going bankrupt or liquidating assets. The whole Company might not go under because the CIMCO, SITECH, and AgWest business units would survive but, essentially ~80% of the business would be liquidated.
In addition to the morbid scenario I laid out above, Toromont is also dependent on Caterpillar for timely supply of equipment and parts. There is no assurance that Caterpillar will continue to supply its products in the quantities and time frames required by Toromont’s customers. So if there is supply chain shock, like the one we just saw, there is the chance that Toromont will not have access to sufficient inventory to meet demand. Which in turn would lead to the loss of revenue or even to the permanent loss of customers.
Again, both of these threats have low a probability of occurring but either could single handedly cripple Toromont’s business. As of now, Caterpillar continues to dominate a large market share (~38% as per Gurufocus) in the industry against large competitors like John Deere, CNH Industrial, Cummins, and others.
Caterpillar's stock has been on a slow decline for a couple years but that is due to reasons beyond the ones that directly concern Toromont’s day-to-day operations. I would say if you don't believe in Caterpillar’s continued market share dominance, investing in Toromont is probably not for you.
Shortage of Skilled Workers
Shortage of skilled tradesmen represents a pinch point for industry growth. Demographic trends are reducing the number of individuals entering the trades, thus making access to skilled individuals more difficult. Additionally, the company has several remote locations which makes attracting and retaining skilled individuals more difficult. The lack of such workers in Canada has caused Toromont to become more assertive and thoughtful in their recruitment efforts.
To combat this threat, Toromont has/is:
  • Recruited 303 technicians to achieve growth targets
  • Created 208 student apprenticeship programs
  • Working with 19 vocational institutions in Toronto to teach about best practices and introduce the Company as a future employer to students
As a result of these initiatives and others, Toromont saw their workforce grow by ~8% 2019. Growing the workforce is one of the primary building blocks for future growth.
Cyclical Business Cycle
Toromont’s business is cyclical due to its customers' businesses being cyclical. This affects factors such as exchange rates, commodity/precious metal pricing, interest rates, and most importantly, inventory management. To mitigate this issue, management has put more focus on increasing revenues from product support activities as they are more profitable than the equipment supply business and less volatile.
Environmental Regulations Affecting Customers
Toromont’s customers are subject to significant and ever-increasing environmental legislation and regulation. This leads to 2 impacts:
  1. Technical difficulty in meeting environmental requirements in product design -> increased costs
  2. Reduction in business activity of Toromont’s customers in environmentally sensitive areas -> reduced revenues
Threats such as these come with a business of this type. As an investor in Toromont, you can't do much to mitigate these kinds of threats because it's out of your hands. Oil and gas, mining, forestry, and infrastructure projects are major drivers of the Canadian economy, so I think there will always be opportunity for Toromont to make money, regardless of government action.
Impact of COVID19
While the company had been declared as an essential service in all jurisdictions that it operates in, Q1 2019 results were lower as a function of COVID19 reducing activity in many sectors that Toromont services. Decline in mining and construction projects lead to a decrease in demand for Toromont products in the latter part of the quarter. Revenues were trending for 5-7% growth for the quarter before the effects of COVID19 were felt.
Management cannot provide any guidance on how to evaluate the impact of COVID19 on future financial results. They are focusing on ensuring the continued safety of employees and working with customers and the jurisdiction they operate in to evaluate appropriate activity levels on a daily/weekly basis. Lastly, management is keeping a close eye on how this crisis has led to an increase in A/R delinquencies and financial hardship for customers.
The Executive Team and the Board of Directors have taken a voluntary compensation reduction. Wage increase freezes and temporary layoffs have been implanted on a selective basis. Management believes that expanding product offerings and services, strong financial position, and disciplined operating culture positions the Company well for continued growth in the long term.
Competition
Toromont competes with a large number of international, national, regional, and local suppliers. Although price competition can be strong, there are a number of factors that have enhanced Toromont’s ability to compete:
  • Range and quality of products and services
  • Ability to meet sophisticated customer requirements
  • Distribution capabilities including number and proximity of locations
  • Financing through CAT Finance
  • E-commerce solutions
  • Reputation
  • Financial health

Main Competitor in Canada: Finning International Inc.

Finning International Inc. (TSE:FTT) is the world's largest Caterpillar dealer that sells, rents and provides parts and service for equipment and engines to customers across diverse industries, including mining, construction, petroleum, forestry and a wide range of power systems applications. Finning was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Toromont Industries Ltd Finning International Inc.
Market Cap $5.84B $3.02B
Price $65.66 $18.49
Dividend Yield 1.87% 4.36%
Number of Employees >6,500 >13,000
Revenues (ttm) $3.69B $7.57B
Trailing P/E Ratio 19x 11x
Price/Book 3.71x 1.35x
Profit Margin 7.71% 3.54%
Places of Operations Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador, most of Nunavut, and the Northeastern United States British Columbia, Yukon, Alberta, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories, a portion of Nunavut, UK, Ireland, Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile
Table 2: A quick comparison between Toromont and Finning.
I am sure there are some people looking at this table and thinking Finning looks rather promising based on the metrics shown, especially in comparison to Toromont. Finning’s dividend yield, P/E, and price/book look more attractive. Their top line is 2x. Not to mention it operates worldwide and is the only distributor in the UK, while Toromont only operates in half of Canada.>! Before you go off thinking “I need to use my HELOC to buy some Finning,” as some people on this subreddit are prone to do, ask yourself: do you see any cause for concern in the metrics listed above? !<
One glaring question I have is: why is Finning trading at half of Toromont’s market cap given that it operates internationally and has twice the number of employees and revenues of Toromont?

Q1 2020 Financial Results


Figure 3: Q1 2020 Income Statement
Overall operating income, net earnings, and EPS all decreased even though Toromont saw an increase in revenue for the quarter compared to Q1 of 2019.
  • All of these decreases were contributed to COVID19, as the pandemic lead to increases in costs
Historically, Q1 has always been Toromont’s weakest quarter. Q1 accounts for ~20% of yearly earnings and is consistently the least profitable quarter. Toromont’s profit margin generally ranges from 5%-9% progressively increasing into the later half of the year. This is good news for investors with the thesis that the economy will return to "somewhat normal" in the latter half of this year. The majority of the earnings for 2020 are still on the table for Toromont to earn. If current conditions persist, or there is a second wave and lockdown later in the year, we will most likely see a regression in Toromont’s growth to last year’s levels or even lower.
Assuming the world does return to “normal,” many of Toromont’s customers (especially in mining and construction) may try to catch up for lost time with increases to their operational activity, leading to an increase in Toromont’s sales for the remainder of the year. Of course this is a major assumption but it’s a possibility.
Below is a comparison of the last eight quarters. You can see the clear cyclical nature of their business.
Figure 4: Last eight quarters of earnings

Sources of Liquidity

Credit
  • Toromont has access to a $500 million revolving credit facility, maturing in October 2022
  • On April 17 2020 they secured an additional $250 million as a one year syndicate facility
Cash Position
  • Cash increased by 22.6 million for the quarter
  • Cash from operations increased 13% Q1 2020 compared to Q1 2019
  • The company also drew $100 million from their revolving credit facility
  • $4 million dollars of stocks were repurchased during Q1 2020
Given their access to $750.0 million dollars of credit and cash on hand equaling $388.2 million, the Company should have sufficient liquidity to operate if COVID19 and its aftermath persist for an extended period of time.

Financial Analysis

Analysis of Debt
Historically, Toromont has had very low debt levels. The spike in late 2017 was due to the acquisition of Hewitt. Management paid off the debt aggressively in 2018. At the end of December 2019 Toromont had $650 million of debt maturing between 2025 and 2027. As a result of COVID19 the company has taken on more debt. This additional access to debt accounts of the slight uptick in historical debt in 2020 (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Toromont’s historical debt, equity, and cash
The long-term debt to capitalization ratio is a variation of the traditional debt-to-equity ratio. The long-total debt to capitalization ratio is a solvency measure that shows the proportion of debt a company uses to finance its assets, relative to the amount of equity used for the same purpose. A higher ratio means that a company is highly leveraged, which generally carries a higher risk of insolvency with it.
The debt-to-equity ratio is at 47% and debt-to-capitalization ratio is 32%, Toromont has $388 million in cash that could be used to pay down debt by nearly 50% and bring the net debt-to-equity to 23% and net debt-to-capitalization to 18%. As mentioned before, management is holding on to cash to insure sufficient liquidity during these times.
The implication of these ratios is that Toromont does not take on large amounts of debt to finance growth. Instead the Company leverages shareholders equity to drive growth.
For comparison, Finning has a debt-to-equity ratio of ~100% (it differs between WSJ, 99%, and Yahoo Finance, 101%). The nominal amount of their total debt is ~$2.2 billion, which gives them a long-term debt to capitalization ratio 62%. Finning carries $260 million in cash.
Figure 6: Toromont’s debt-to-capitalization and debt-to-equity ratios
Profitability Ratios
Return on equity (also known as return on net assets) measures how effectively management is using a company’s assets to create profits.
Toromont’s return on equity is generally around 20%. Go to Figure 6 to look at the ROE for the last 4 years. In comparison, Finning has had a ROE of ~11% for the last three years, about 3% in 2016 and a negative ROE in 2015 (as per Morningstar).
Return on capital employed (ROCE) tries to find the return relative to the total capital employed in the business (both debt & equity less short-term liabilities). Toromont’s ROCE (ttm) for March 31 2020 was 22%. This means for every dollar employed in the business 22 cents were earned in EBIT (earnings before interest and tax). Finning had a ROCE of 11% as of December 2019.
Liquidity Ratios
Working capital is the amount of cash and other current assets a business has available after all its current liabilities are accounted for. In the last ten years, Toromont’s working capital has fluctuated between 1.6 at its lowest (2018) to 2.8 at its highest (2016). At the end of 2019 it was at 1.8. Meaning current liabilities equate to 60% of current assets.
Interest coverage ratio is used to determine how easily a company can pay their interest expenses on outstanding debt. Toromont has an interest coverage ratio 15x (as per WSJ). Finning on the other hand is at 4x. At this point I feel like I'm just beating up on Finning.
For those of you who made it this far, I have to admit something to you. This whole post is just a facade to ask you a question that has never been asked on this subreddit before: Should I buy BPY.UN? It keeps going down and I'm worried if I buy it, it will keep going down and I'll lose money. I don't want to lose money. Although if you go through my post history, you'll see I've been looking at/buying penny stocks.

Key Performance Measures

Below is a chart with key financial measures for the last four years. A few things I want to highlight:
  • Toromont had large capital expenditure last year (most of it went to increasing inventory) so they have the choice to keep capital expenditure down this year and preserve cash
  • From the start of 2018 (aka end of 2017) to the end of 2018 Toromont stock was down about 3% while the TSX Composite was down more 12% and S&P was down 7%. This stock has a history of out performance not only on the upside but also on the downside. I'll go into a bit more detail in the next section.
Figure 7: Summary of key financial measure for the last four years

Price Chart Comparisons

I don't do technical analysis. To those who do, good luck to you because let's be real, you'll need it. This section is just to get an idea of past performance and evaluate the opportunity cost of investing in Toromont compared to a competitor or a board based index fund.
I thought it would be easier to look at pictures as opposed to reading a bunch of numbers off a table.
For the sake of not creating a picture album of screenshots, I just looked at charts for the last 5 years. If you're interested in looking at different time intervals you can do so on google finance.

  1. Toromont Industries Ltd v. Finning International Inc.
Figure 8: Five year price chart of TIH v. FTT
These are the only two Caterpillar distributors on the TSX, making them direct comparisons. If I was looking for exposure to this industry, I would be choosing between these two companies (on the TSX anyways). There isn't really much to evaluate here. It's like they saying: “A picture is a thousand words,” or in this case, it's 128%. If you have time, go look at the graph from August 1996 to now. I can safely say it hasn't been much of a competition. Toromont has outperformed by ~2500% in stock price appreciation alone. If you're a glass half full kind of person, I guess you could look at this disparity as Finning having enormous upside. LOL

  1. Toromont Industries Ltd v. S&P 500 Index
Figure 9: Five year price chart of TIH v. VFV
If I'm not buying individual stocks, I’m buying the S&P 500 and to a lesser extent a Nasdaq index fund. This gives me a second look at the opportunity cost of my money. The story is not as bad as the Finning comparison. If you had bought $100 dollars of Toromont stock 5 years ago, it would have turned into $207 today, whereas the same $100 dollars in VFV would have became $157.
Just a quick aside, you can see the volatility in Toromont’s stock is much higher compared to the VFV. VFV has a relatively smooth trend upwards while Toromont trends upwards in a jagged path. This is the risk of single stocks, they move up and down more erratically, leading inventors who don't have a grasp of the business or conviction in their pick to panic sell or post countless times on Reddit asking why their stocks keep going down. “I bought the stock last week and it's done 3% already, do you guys think it’s going bankrupt? I thought stonks only go up???”

  1. Toromont Industries Ltd v. S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index
Figure 10: Five year price chart of TIH v. ^TTIN
The S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index isn't my favourite comparison for Toromont because its constituents cover many industries ranging from waste management (WCN), to railways (CNCP), to Airlines (AC, lol, had to mention it. I miss the days when there were double digits posts about AC. I wonder where those people have gone, because I can tell you where AC stock has gone... absolutely nowhere). Regardless, I used TTIN because I deemed it a better comparison to Toromont than the entire TSX. The story is on par with the other two comparisons. Toromont’s out performance is significant.
I just threw this bonus chart in here because when I saw it, I was like BRUHHH (insert John Wall meme)… It's completely unsustainable but that's impressive given the vast differences between the two.
  1. Toromont Industries Ltd v. NASDAQ-100
Figure 11: Five year price chart of TIH v. ZQQ
Now, of course, past performance does not dictate future results and all that good stuff, but it really gets you thinking about how the rewards disproportionately favours winners compared to the overall market. People are generally happy getting market returns (i.e. the just buy VGRO people) but being able to pick even a few winners really pays. This reminds me of the Warren Buffet quote: “diversification is protection against ignorance.” The context of the quote is that if you are able to study a few industries in great depth and acquire a wealth of knowledge, you can see returns astronomically higher than those who diversify across the board market. The problem then becomes you put yourself at risk of having all your eggs in one basket. Look at what's happening with Wirecard in Europe right now. This is why the real skill in investing is managing risk.

Analyst Price Targets and Estimates

The prince targets set for by analysts range from $63-$81. The average price target is ~$72, with the majority of targets within the 70-$71 range. Given the current price of $65.66, there is a ~10% upside. These price targets haven't changed much due to COVID19 even though revenues and EPS forecasts have been downgraded for 2020. The consensus estimate on 2020 revenues is $3.36 billion, down from the actual revenues of $3.69 billion in 2019 and the consensus EPS for 2020 is $3.01 down from actual EPS of $3.52 for 2019 and $3.10 for 2018. The fact that revenues and EPS forecasts have been downgraded, yet price targets remain untouched, for the most part, indicates that the effects of COVID19 are expected to be short-lived.
Figure 12: Earnings and estimate ranges for Toromont. Note: EPS numbers in this graphic are diluted EPS numbers.

Valuation

Multiples
Assuming P/E ratio stays the same as it has been for the last 12 months (~19x) and EPS goes down to ~$3.00 (as per analyst consensus), the implied price would be $57.
Using the last 12 months of revenues, the EV-to-Revenues ratio is at 1.56x. Assuming that ratio stays the same and with revenues estimated to be ~$3.36 billion, enterprise value (EV) comes out to $5.2416 billion. Using Q1 2020 figures for shares outstanding (82.015 million), cash ($388.182 million), and debt ($745.703 million), the implied price for a share is $58.94*.
\Note: Enterprise Value is equal to market cap plus total debt minus cash.)
Dividend Discount Model
The dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing a company's stock price based on the theory that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value.
The average dividend growth rate is 12% for the last 5 years is 12%. There is no way Toromont can increase the dividend at this pace in the long term, thus, I chose a long term dividend growth rate of 5%. This is the assumed rate in perpetuity. The required rate of return will equal WACC, 6.85% (averaged from 2019 Annual Report). The dividend over the last year is $1.16 (two payments of $0.27 in 2019 and two payments of $0.31 for 2020).
The fair value equals $65.84.
Figure 13: DDM calculation.

Closing Thoughts

There is no doubt that Toromont trades at a large premium. The current P/E is 19x and the CAPE ratio (Shiller P/E) is 26x. The fair value of the Company as per Morningstar research is in the mid $60 range.
Based on all valuations I did and analyst price targets, I would start buying in the high $50 range or maybe the very low $60 range, but my belief in the company has to do with long term thematic trends and how the Company operates, rather than today's price. Although I have to admit, the price does look more attractive now than it did in the beginning of June when the stock hit new all time highs. It seems like the only companies hitting new all time highs these days are tech companies, so it's refreshing to find a non-tech company achieving the same feat.
Toromont is not going to double next year or the year after that. It is a relatively low margin business, with slow growth and a cyclical business cycle. I like that the Company has strong financials, low debt, and good management. They don't take shortcuts or unwarranted risk. Future growth will mostly be driven through acquisition, but management is cautious with acquisitions and don't overextend themselves. One of the biggest problems Finning has been facing for the last couple years is political and social turmoil in South American countries which is affecting their mining clients and thus affecting revenues/margins.
The Q2 earnings are reported on July 22 202. We should have a clearer picture on the prospects of the Company from management. Hopefully we have a better idea of the COVID19 situation by then too. Regardless, I think the company is in a position where its services will always be in demand so short term fluctuations are not something that shake my confidence in this pick.

Limitations and Further Areas of Research

By no means is this an exhaustive due diligence report. This is enough for me to feel confident in the business and its trajectory. Limitations/further areas of the research include:
  • Looking into the growth of each sector Toromont services and extrapolating that growth to calculate Toromont’s future growth opportunity.
    • As per IBIS Research the heavy equipment rental market in Canada is ~$8.3 billion. It grew 1.1% yearly for the last 5 years.
    • The US market is estimated to be $47 billion, with an average growth of 2% for the last 5 years
      • Sorry but I couldn't get my hands on future projections as each report is $750
  • More research into competitors
    • I chose to include Finning only for simplicity’s sake. But there are many other competitors like:
      • United Rentals (NYSE:URI) provides similar services to Toromont/Finning in 49 U.S. states, 10 Canadian provinces, Puerto Rico and four European countries. The only thing being they aren't distributors for Caterpillar.
      • Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc (TSE:RME) sells, leases, and provides product and warranty support for agriculture and industrial equipment in Western Canada
      • Holt Cat, N C Machinery, Ziegler CAT (none of these companies are publicly traded)
  • Further analysis can be done on the B/S and accounting treatments.
  • The effects of automation in the industry
    • Distributors in the US have started working with industrial automation companies to provide autonomous construction equipment on rent to contractors
      • Sunstate Equipment Co.'s partnership with Built Robotics
  • I was not able to do a discounted cash flow, which would be critical to finding the intrinsic value for Toromont and having true confidence in the company and its trajectory.
  • Further analysis of CIMCO and prospects of future growth
    • Based of the financials, CIMCO seemed like a small part of the business, which is why I mainly focused on the Caterpillar dealership side
These are not all the limitations or areas of further research, they are just the glaring one that came to mind.
>! I know I took a few shots at people in this post. It's all in good jest. If you're offended well.... maybe you should be. I don't know, you have to figure that out on your own or you could make a post on Reddit asking random people on the internet whether you should be offended or not. !<
Remember I'm not an expert, I'm just a random guy on the internet.

Disclosure

I am long Toromont. This information is not financial advice. Please do your own research and/or talk to a financial advisor. All data provided is current prior to the market opening on June 29, 2020. Inconsistencies in data can be due to many reasons, the foremost being that data was spruced from multiple different websites.
submitted by Dr_Sargunz to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]


2020.06.01 18:04 blubbercup Canada and the Importation of America's Social Issues

Hello all,

Some of these thoughts and ideas I'm going to write about have been on my mind for days and are weighing on me. I needed somewhere to let these out and the only place I could think of was here, so thanks if you're reading this. All of this is commentary on Canadian society from the perspective of a Canadian. If I get facts about America please correct me, as I am ignorant of much of your history.

Part 1: Canada and its lack of identity

As a young Canadian man I have to say living next to the country that may have one of the most defined identities in the world was strange. Canada, despite all of its cartoon like stereotypes, lacks a sense of national identity. There is nothing that Canada stands for that is unique to the western world (perhaps a national love for hockey but that is about it). We do like to pride ourselves on our tolerance and acceptance, but as far as I know most, if not all western countries allow you to be who you want to be as we hold (or did hold) the individual as sovereign. Canadians in some areas of Canada are even losing the accent in favour of a more americanized accent, most likely due to exposure of majority american media (short video on Canadian accent). That being said my main point here is that Canada lacks an identity, and due to the recent events in the United States, it is plain to see. Canada's identity comes from "not being The United States". Because we live in such close proximity, and because much of what America does on the national stage is looked at as eccentric to say the least, Canada has made a concerted effort to be the Anti-USA. Just look at our socialistic healthcare, it is one of the prides of our country which I am certain is due to America's lack of socialistic healthcare. The man who is the father of Canada's socialistic healthcare, Tommy Douglas, is heralded as the greatest Canadian (CBCs piece on Tommy Douglas, greatest Canadian) It is ironic then that in the effort to "not be The United States" we have imported and perverted their social issues to make us look better.

Part 2: The importation of The United State's social issues

On many occasions Canadians tend to like to import problems from American society into Canadian society. This of course has been accelerated by social media, as the interactions between Americans, and their problems are being shown more frequently than ever. One example of the importation of American problems into Canadian society is the recent firearm ban. If you are not familiar, a man in Nova Scotia disguised a vehicle as an RCMP (federal police) vehicle where he then would pull people over and shoot them. He killed 17 people and was considered the worst mass shooting in Canadian history (worst mass killings in Canada). This lead to the Liberal government (despite parliament being suspended by COVID so a minority government introduced a law without opposition) banning 1500 firearm types and their variants. Now data has shown that the real issue in terms of gun crime in Canada is the illegal smuggling of firearms into Canada from The United States (Black Market guns in Canada). The shooter in Nova Scotia used a black market gun (shooting report). The vast majority of all gun crime in Canada stems from this smuggling (Canadian gun stats) as hand guns are often smuggled in by Toronto gangs where most of the gun violence occurs (Account of gun smuggling). While it was clear that the main way to solve this problem was to enforce border security, the gun ban was implemented for optics sake, so Canada could look more progressive than America and ban guns, while actually accomplishing nothing for public safety. Canadians imported the social issue of gun control from The United States and were either too ignorant to think it did not apply to our own social issues, or used it as a means to push an agenda. This is but one example, but I assure you growing up as a Canadian this occurs a lot and on a smaller scale. I used the gun example because it was the least convoluted and probably the most well documented in recent history.

Part 3: George Floyd protests in Canada

I will start this part of by saying George Floyd was murdered. He was murdered in the streets by an authority figure and I can see how Americans want to take action and protest this murder to make sure that justice prevails. That being said it seems many people are taking advantage of this good will and perverting the initial cause for their own anarchist agenda. Canadians have done something similar. Just days after the tragedy of George Floyd, there was a report that Toronto police officers pushed a young black woman off of a balcony, where she fell 24 storeys and died. This claim came from her cousin who made a short video that went viral on instagram, and the mother of the girl who had died, and so prompted Torontoians to take action (Initial account of balcony incident). Problem is, there was no evidence what so ever. The initial call was put in because she was mentally distressed, and it seems she was the cause of her own death and the family has since redacted their statement (update on balcony incident). But it did not matter, as protests broke out in Canada's largest COVID hot spot in downtown Toronto, and then violent riots occurred in the second largest COVID hot spot in Montreal (Thousands protest for young woman, Montreal riots deemed illegal). How many Canadian citizens will now die from COVID because Canadians decided to protest and American death at American hands due to American systems? It seems people wanted to protest or riot, as a sense of missing out took over Canadians. There was no reason to protest and riot in Canada, yet it occurred anyway? Why? To protest Canadian police violence? That has never been a narrative in Canada, but they want it to be. I am not saying police brutality and exploration of power does not happen in Canada, but to claim that it is the same as America is absurd. There are plenty of differences between American and Canadian police forces (differences). One of which is the amount of violence used. There is approximately 3 fatal police shootings per 1 million people per year in the united states, while there is approximately 1 fatal police shooting per 1.85million people per year in Canada (police use of deadly force reviewed by The Vancouver Sun). That means it was approximated that the US police use deadly force almost 6 times as much as Canada. I am not using this point as a means to claim Canada is superior, I am just pointing this out to show that Canada is different and the riots being conducted are baseless in Canada and are only occurring due to the importation of American issues into Canada. Canada does not even have the same history of racial tension that The United States has, despite some Canadians wanting it that way. Slavery was abolished in the British Colonies in 1833 for capitalistic reasons primarily, with the vast majority of slaves being freed outside of Canada, since Canada harboured relatively little (Background of The Slavery Abolition Act, 1833). Even before the 1833 Canada had introduced the Act to Limit Slavery in 1793, the first British Colony to pursue the end of Slavery. Canada has always been on the more progressive side of History when it comes to Slavery, where as America needed a civil war to end it. Again, I am not making Canada out to be superior I am just making it out to be different than The United States. Canada is not free and clear of slavery, and we have plenty to be ashamed of as a nation (History of residential schools in Canada).

Part 4: Conclusion

The main point I've attempted to get across is that Canada lacks an identity and therefor must leach off of American society to create its own. As a Canadian it seems Canada has a parasitic relationship with the USA, picking and choosing what social issues to introduce into our society as an attempt to have our own cultural identity, but in reality we've just perverted the Americans. What I've listed above are a few examples of this happening, and since they are two recent examples I thought a need to let it out instead of holding these thoughts in. It may seem incoherent at times but I find this issue in Canadian society such a broad topic it was hard for me to condense it into a coherent fashion without listing and citing much needed context from Canadian history. Thanks to anyone who read this far.
submitted by blubbercup to IntellectualDarkWeb [link] [comments]


2019.11.16 23:50 SuperSans [OC] It's silly season, so I wrote a silly ProRel Simulator

US Soccer ProRel Simulator

Greetings, and welcome to the US Soccer ProRel Simulator. Since it's the start of the silly season, I wanted to make a silly post containing what I like to call the ProRel simulator, a quick script I wrote that uses old standings data from MLS and lower divisions.
The script swaps "futures" of teams to "predict" what today's soccer climate would look like if we had promotion-relegation in the US Soccer system. This post is meant solely for giggles and bait for those who can't resist the temptation.

How It Works

When clubs are promoted/relegated, they "swap futures", meaning that they just assume the position the other team had in the next league. This has some interesting side effects, such as relegated teams folding immediately (pretty realistic!).
Additionally, I took some liberties as to what defines "D2", i.e. USL from 2010-2017. If there were two "D2" leagues in the same year, I merged them together and based standings off of their per-game stats.

The Rules

  1. The US Soccer Pyramid starts in 1996.
  2. MLS is the only D1 league.
  3. 3 clubs are promoted or relegated each season.
  4. Reserve sides cannot be promoted.
  5. Teams can "buy into" the first division (aka expansion teams that did not earn promotion), since this is America after all.
  6. Relocated teams, such as San Jose to Houston, are not considered the same club.
  7. Clubs are based on an ID, not a name, so renamed clubs are considered in the simulator. I actually learned a lot while tracking down historic names!

Division 2

1996 - Merged A-League/USISL 1997-2004 - A-League 2005-2009 - USL 2010 - Merged USSF D2/USL Div 2 2011-2017 - Merged NASL/USL 2018 - USL

Getting Started - 1996

1996 MLS Standings
  1. Tampa Bay Mutiny
  2. Los Angeles Galaxy
  3. D.C. United
  4. Dallas Burn
  5. Kansas City Wizards
  6. MetroStars
  7. San Jose Clash
  8. Columbus Crew
  9. New England Revolution
  10. Colorado Rapids
Relegated:
1996 Division 2 Standings
  1. Carolina Dynamo
  2. Montreal Impact
  3. South Carolina Shamrocks
  4. California Jaguars
  5. Long Island Rough Riders
  6. Milwaukee Rampage
  7. Hampton Roads Mariners
  8. Minnesota Thunder
  9. Colorado Foxes
  10. Sacramento Scorpions
  11. Richmond Kickers
  12. Tampa Bay Cyclones
  13. El Paso Patriots
  14. New Mexico Chiles
  15. Seattle Sounders
  16. Connecticut Wolves
  17. Rochester Rhinos
  18. New Orleans Riverboat Gamblers
  19. Vancouver 86ers
  20. Raleigh Flyers
  21. Ohio Xoggz
  22. Delaware Wizards
  23. New York Fever
  24. Chicago Stingers
  25. Cape Cod Crusaders
  26. Reno Rattlers
  27. Atlanta Ruckus
  28. New York/New Jersey Stallions
Promoted:
Notes:

1997-2018

I'd love to go into detail season by season, but that post would be ridiculously long. If you want to explore each season yourself, check out this spreadsheet of all seasons

2019

After all the dust has settled, here's the final result. There are many fascinating members of MLS, such as New York Cosmos, Chivas USA, and Puerto Rico FC. Division 2 features some funny occurrences, such as NYRB II over NYRB, as well as LAG, SKC, and many other top flight teams in the second division. Why don't see your club in 2019? I think you already know the answer...

Fun Narratives

List of Champions

1996 - Tampa Bay Mutiny 1997 - D.C. United 1998 - Los Angeles Galaxy 1999 - D.C. United 2000 - Kansas City Wizards 2001 - Miami Fusion 2002 - Los Angeles Galaxy 2003 - Chicago Fire 2004 - Milwaukee Wave United 2005 - Charleston Battery 2006 - D.C. United 2007 - D.C. United 2008 - Charleston Battery 2009 - Charleston Battery 2010 - Toronto FC 2011 - Toronto FC 2012 - Carolina RailHawks 2013 - Rochester Rhinos 2014 - Montreal Impact 2015 - Rochester Rhinos 2016 - Portland Timbers 2017 - New York Cosmos 2018 - Rochester Rhinos 2019 - Los Angeles Football Club
This was done out of jest, so don't take it too seriously. If you want access to raw data to have your own fun, check it out here. Enjoy!
submitted by SuperSans to MLS [link] [comments]


2019.10.04 20:36 weilim Overview of China Influence and Interference Activities in Australia

INTRODUCTION

According to the Chinese government that don't conduct influence and interference operations in foreign countries. However, the Communist Party of China (CPC) have had influencing operations for both ethnic Chinese and others in foreign countries in 1930s, and this continued after the CPC seized control in 1949. In fact, the period between 1945-1965 for Hong Kong and countries like Indonesia and Myanmar were both the CPC and the Nationalist (KMT) both could operate, experienced intense and open influencing operations from both sides According to the former SIngaporean diplomat, Bilahari Kausikan said
First, China explicitly rejects the norm of not interfering in another state's domestic affairs and believes its interests should be promoted wherever they may be.
Second, China uses a range of tactics - from legitimate diplomacy to more covert and often illegal deployment of agents of influence and operations - to sway decision makers or public opinion leaders.
As countries want to keep diplomatic relations with Beijing on an even keel, they can end up overlooking or downplaying the subtler manipulation, he said.
Third, the aim of its influence operations is not just to direct behavior, but to condition behaviour.
He said: "China doesn't just want you to comply with its wishes, it wants you to... do what it wants without being told."
Other government use these legitimate diplomacy and other legal methods to influence, and many use illegal and covert methods.
While China just doesn't just target diaspora populations, diaspora communities with recent Chinese immigrants or were a high % of overseas Chinese still use language media are particularly attractive targets.
Chinese interference and influencing operations is a hot button issue in Australia but Canada and New Zealand as well. In /Australia and /Canada, topics regarding Chinese interference have reached top 20 post in the last month, for New Zealand its top 5. All three countries have large ethnic Chinese population. In terms of share of the population, ethnic Chinese in Australia, Canada and New Zealand make up 5.6% (2018), 5.1% (2017) and 4.2% (2013) of the respective. population. Asians make up 16%, 18% and 15% of their respective populations. In contrast, Chinese make up 1.5% of the US population, in the uK its 0.7% population. Outside Greater China, only Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand where ethnic Chinese make up a larger % of the population. Furthermore, most of Chinese in the three Anglo-Saxon counters have arrived in the last 30 years, in contrast to 100-140 years for Singapore and Malaysia.
Furthermore, the three Anglo Saxon societies are open with regards to first generation immigrants participating in politics. There are MP in all three countries who immigrated in their twenties or thirties. In contrast, in the US all foreign born Representatives in the House are 1.5 generation, meaning they arrived in the country as children, with the oldest being 16 when she arrived, Americans have accent discrimination, meaning they want someone to sound American to present them These countries are worried about if a MP is Chinese spy, because of his suspected links to Chinese military intelligence (which he didn't disclose when applying for residency), not whether he was a member of the Young Pioneers.. This is one reason why, some want New Zealand kicked out of the Five Eyes.
.In the last month alone there have been at least three separate issues regarding Chinese interference.
I believe Australia's increasing hostility toward China is driven largely by fear of Chinese interference and influence in domestic affairs as well as Chinese competition in Australia's Pacific backyard.

AUSTRALIA-CHINA STUCK WITH EACH OTHER ECONOMICALLY

I am going to explain Australia-China's economic ties. It is not as simple as China is the buyer and Australia's run a trade surplus with China, Australia must listen to China. When one is talking about trade dependency the key is how much a country export to China, not the total trade volume. Chinese has little leverage on import side.
Australia is more dependent on exports to China than all Asian nations except for New Zealand, Taiwan, North Korea, Mongolia and Myanmar. About 31% of Australia's exports go to China. For Indonesia it is 12%, Thailand 11.4%, Vietnam 14.5%, Malaysia 16%, Japan 17.6%, South Korea 25%. US is the largest export destination for Thailand, Vietnam and Japan.
However, for physical goods Australia and China are joined at the hip economically, and China just can't walk away from Australia and find another seller for the top imports from Australia - Iron ore and Coal. Australia is the only seller that can meet China's demand for Iron and to a lesser extent Coal. These two products make up 2/3 of Australia's export earnings. Australia's is the top exporter of Iron ore, making up 50% of the world's iron exports. Brazil is number 2 at 22%, South Africa is 3 with 4.6% of world production. It is also the second largest producer with 825,000,000 metric tons a year, China produces 1,380,000,000 and the third largest producer Brazil produces 428,000,000.. China imports 1 Billion tonnes a year. China had suspected of restricting imports of Australian coal earlier in the year, again Australia makes up 38% of exports, Indonesia is second at 17%, Russia is 14% and US at 10%.
Secondly, while Chinese investment gets a lot of attention, and Australia received about AUD$10 Billion of Chinese investment, ASEAN received Billion US$15.6 from Hong Kong and China. Australia received the same % of Chinese direct investment relative to the size of her economy. However, Chinese investment investment in Australia, while high profile like in real estate, is still below that of Western countries in Australia and ASEAN. US investments alone make up 25% of total FDI capital stock in Australia vs 5.2% for China. In 2017, the US invested AUD$ 33 Billion vs 9 Billion for China and Hong Kong.
Thirdly, the 153,000 Chinese students make up the 40% of the total number of foreign students in Australia. They bring in about AUD$11 Billion in export revenue a year, that 0.8% of Australia's GDP
Unlike New Zealand, China's economic hold on Australia isn't strong enough that Australia will disregard China's threats to her security both internally and regionally.

CHINA MAIN METHODS OF INFLUENCE AND INTERFERENCE

CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE
AS I mentioned in a previous post, Contemporary China's Quest for Rejuvenation and the Century of Humiliation, I stress the importance of the Chinese government in controlling, making people believe and use their narrative. The Chinese government propotagates the notion that China was the dominant power in Asia, that it was non-expansionist and peaceful power. Chinese diplomats trained in China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU) according to a Western professor who taught at CFAU
A peaceful world player, who, although powerful in the past, had never viciously conquered or invaded others. The example of the Ming dynasty maritime explorer Zheng He (1371-1433) regularly featured in the discussion. China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU)
Sino-centric scholars like David Kang have contributed to this narrative, that Asia is peaceful when China is strong, and unstable when China is weak, and other challenge it like Japan. If you don't have the academic and historical knowledge its easy to fall for such narratives,
China sees its influence campaign to spread its narrative, and more importantly to get you to spread their narrative. Bilahari Kausikan says
"China doesn't just want you to comply with its wishes, it wants you to... do what it wants without being told" A key tactic is present the target with oversimplified narratives, "forcing false choices on you and making you choose between them", he said. For example, "America is the past and China is the future, so get on the right track", or that being close to the US makes it difficult to have a close economic relationship with China, he said.
PLAYING THE MAN
In the article, CONTRASTING CHINA’S AND RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE OPERATIONS, the author Peter Mattis, argues while the Russian excel at Set Piece Operations, the Chinese interference operations heavily involve "Playing the Man"
The Chinese, however, seem to focus on individuals rather than effects, on shaping the personal context rather than operational tricks. It is person-to-person relationships that carry the weight of Chinese information operations. Many of China’s first-generation diplomats and negotiators — including Zhou Enlai, Wu Xiuquan, Li Kenong, Xiong Xianghui, Liao Chengzhi, and many others — worked for some time as intelligence officers. For example, Li Kenong was Beijing’s chief negotiator at the Panmunjom talks with the United Nations during the Korean War and a vice foreign minister. His party career, however, began in intelligence where he was one of the “Three Heroes of the Dragon’s Lair” and rose to become a deputy director of the party’s intelligence service.
How the author cautions this aren't perfect distinctions, and both system use a variety of methods, and China is using some methods in relation to Taiwan. as the Russians did Ukraine.
I suspect the Chinese "play the man" stems for two reasons, By focusing on individuals, all you have to worry about is human psychology and base instinct (like money and sex. To conduct a broad Russian style influencing operation require understanding Western society. The second reason for this individualized approach mirror relations between states in Imperial China. Relations between China and her neighbors were couched in personal terms between sovereign and sovereign, but more importantly her long involvement with the Steppe nomads. For much of the last 1000 years, the biggest threat to China was a charismatic leader uniting and organizing the steppe nomads into invading China. This happened twice, with Genghis Khan and Nurhaci, the founder and ruler of the Manchus.
Chinese interference operations in Australia, involves "Playing the Man" hundreds if not thousands of times. They target academics, politicians, business people, and prominent members of society. If you do this enough and long enough, you will end up with hundred of times across various level of society you will end up with hundreds prominent influencers, and if China's spy agency, State Security Ministry does it, assets. The State Security Ministry, plays more of support role, than the FSB/KGB in Russia. The supposed Chinese hacking of Australia National University (ANU) , help in their efforts "Play the Man"

CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY AND THE UNITED FRONT

When dealing with officials in the Chinese government, one must remember at the end you are dealing with members of the Communist Party. China is a party state. While non-party members were common in the Chinese bureaucracy in the 1950s, now they are exceedingly rare
It would be safe to say all Chinese diplomats are party members. One would expect the primary bureaucracy China deals with the outside world would be less ideological, and that might have been the case in the past. However, the reality now is because they are dealing with foreigners, there has to be greater ideologization. Here is an article written by Merriden Varrall who taught International Relations and International Development at the China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU) in Beijing from 2009-2010. Here are the main points from the article:
The author sees the CPC desire for loyalty among diplomats, increasing the number of undiplomatic behavior among Chinese diplomats as we saw during the Kimberley Process in Western Australia in 2017. incidents in Europe, Chinese diplomats praising Chinese students groups for attacking Hong Kong protestors in Australia and New Zealand and suspected involvement in protesting a speech by Uighur Activist in Canada. This type behavior isn't approaching the behavior of Chinese diplomats of 60s yet, where Chinese diplomats attacked British police.
There is another factor which will increase the intensity of China's interference and influencing operations, most influencing efforts will be brought under the UFWD (United Front Work Department), the main influencing body, Most interference operations occurring prior to 2018 was amateurish and lacked coordination, because many UWFD had to work with other departments. The UWFD is an organizations found in China int the 1930s to win over non-Communist Party members to the Communist cause. They are responsible for managing influential elites and community groups inside and outside China. Among these groups include religious groups, ethnic minorities, Hong Kong-Taiwan-Macau and overseas Chinese. In the UFWD there is little division between internal and external operations This is For example, Overseas Chinese Affairs Office (OACO) used to be under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, now its under the UWFD. However, its effectiveness even with the reorganization is not certain, given they are using the same people they were using before.

HOW SERIOUS IS THE INTERFERENCE?

In this section I will list incidents and events of Chinese interference and influence that are substantive and others which aren't or classified.
POLITICAL
In early September, referencing the ASIO Director General, Duncan Lewis, the Guardian wrote
Australia’s outgoing spy chief says malevolent state espionage and foreign interference poses an “existential threat” to Australia in a way that extremist terrorism does not. Duncan Lewis, the director general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, will retire this month after a five-year term, handing over to Signals Directorate boss Mike Burgess. He told a Lowy Institute forum on Wednesday night that of the three major “vectors” threatening Australia’s security – espionage and foreign interference; terrorism; and cybersecurity – the interference of hostile state actors posed the most serious threat.
During his speech, he didn't once mention China. The basis of the Australia's National Security Legislation Amendment (Espionage and Foreign Interference) Act 2018 was a top secret report released in 2017. According to this article
One intelligence source told the ABC there had been infiltration at every layer of Australian Government, right down to local councils
Here I will list the main Chinese influencing political scandals that have occured in the last 3 years, not including the Gladys Liu scandal.
  1. The 2016 .scandal. Sam Dastyari was a Senator for the Labour Party, He asked a Education company,Top Education Institute, to pay for his staff travel expenses when he went over the allocated amount by AUD$ 1,670.82. Top Education Institutes is owned by Minshen Zhu. Mr Zhu is said to be highly regarded in China. He is a senior adviser to the University of Sydney's Confucius Institute, has connections to China's Fudan University and wields considerable clout at home as a delegate to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the Communist Party's people's forum, Dastyari had other expenses covered by organizations affiliated with the CPC. Sam Dastyari addressing a gathering of Chinese media in Sydney has revealed he offered a detailed defence of China's policy in the South China Sea, in defiance of official ALP policy
Here is a list of other instances of Chinese interference, but with weak proof.
To be honest, only the Gladys Liu and Sam Dastyari scandal were/are a concern. In the Gladys Liu's case its a witch hunt, not because she is Chinese, because Labor wants revenge because the Coalition did the same for Dastyari. Secondly, the Australian media focused on association with organizations like Guangdong provincial branch of the China Overseas Exchange Association the Australia Jiangmen General Commercial Association were linked with Overseas Chinese Affairs Office (OCAO). The OCAO only came under the United Front in 2018. Her mistake wasn't her association with such organizations, but failure to disclose it during preselection. Its understandable given that these organizations were seen as harmless 5 years ago, when they weren't directly under the control of UFWD, Thirdly, the Chinese media doesn't help China by defending Liu when she couldn't respond to simple questions from reporters. It gives the impression that China is backing Liu.
If Sam Dastyari and Gladys Liu had committed these acts today in Australia, they would most likely face criminal charges based on the new legislation passed in 2018.
UNIVERSITIES
The Education Minister, Dan Tehan, Australia will setup new university foreign interference task force that will consist of four working groups
To prevent and respond to cyber security incidents; to protect intellectual property and research; to ensure collaboration with foreign entities is transparent and does not harm Australian interests; and to foster “a positive security culture”
Here are several concerns and incidents that precipitated this
Chinese interference in Australian universities is the issue that has the most impact on Australia and your average Australians. Its going to be the more difficult to resolve given the dependency of Australian universities on Chinese students.
CHINESE AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY
This is the area where the Chinese Government has the most influence over. It comes in four forms.
Here are covert and illegal activities that the Chinese state is suspected of being involved, but not proven
China uses its influence in order to get its narrative across to Chinese living overseas. The bulk of the influence comes from its control of syndicated content and ownership of the media. Outside of Taiwan and Singapore, much of Chinese language media is pro-Beijing, so its not unique to Australia. When I say Pro-Beijing, there are different levels. A news channel getting all of its content from CGTN is just repeating the CPC line. With the pro-Beijing outside Mainland China like TVB its more gray. In areas the unity of China and their stance on the Hong Kong protest they adhere to Beijing's line, but differ in other areas.

National Security Legislation Amendment (Espionage and Foreign Interference) Act 2018

The Act does the following
Federal Criminal Code to introduce the new national security offenses, and the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme Act 2018 establishes a registration scheme for communications activities undertaken on behalf of or in collaboration with certain foreigners. The Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Funding and Disclosure Reform) Bill 2017, which has yet to be passed, would ban foreign political donations along with other changes to electoral laws
Here are a list of foreign interference offences
  1. Illegal for a person to knowingly engage in covert conduct or deception on behalf of a “foreign principal” (which is defined to include any foreign government, foreign political organization, or related entities or persons) with the intention of influencing an Australian political process, the exercise of a vote or prejudicing national security.
  2. Illegal to attempt to influence a target in relation to any political process or exercise of an Australian democratic right (which the legislation leaves undefined) on behalf of or in collaboration with a foreign principal if this foreign connection is not disclosed to the target. (It is not necessary that the agent “have in mind a particular foreign principal” when engaging in the conduct )
For the above offenses the maximum penalty is 20 years if conduct is intentional, 15 years if done recklessly. National security is defined not only as the defense of the country but also its “political, military or economic relations” with other countries.
The registration scheme is as follows
A person who undertakes any general political lobbying or any kind of communications activity for the purpose of political influence on behalf of a foreign principal—that includes any foreign political organization—must register with the government within 14 days.
THe punishment for failing to do so is 2-5 years in imprisonment. This scheme is modeled on the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). While FARA states agents as any non-US person, Australia defines it as foreign governments and political organizations but unlike FARA there are no exemption for those already registered as lobbyist.
The Australian government intention claim its prophylactic, or in my opinion to scare people so they won't associate with said organizations. The Australian legislation has no provision to tackle the dissemination of false information on social media, but its most likely because the Australian government believes it has no clout with those companies.

HOW CHINA DEALS WITH THE INTERFERENCE ACCUSATIONS

China interferes with Australia's internal affairs, and get caught, and Australia responds by tightening security, introducing new legislation and calling out China for interference.
How does China respond? Well she launched a campaign denial and counter accusations. The Chinese state media, supporters of China accuse the Australia government and media of double standards, paranoia, racism. They bring up a forty year conspiracy theory about US involvement in John Kerr dismissal of Gough Whitlam, She then brings out old arguments that that Australia isn't part of Asia and doesn't understand China. People in Canberra panic, and they bring out the China Hand who most likely has been bought by China.
Like Bilahari Kausikan said she pushes her simplified narrative and false dilemma
And says that Australia could benefit if she work for her own "interest" to mediate between China and the US. This follows through with what Bilahari Kausikan "China doesn't just want you to comply with its wishes, it wants you to... do what it wants without being told."
China goes on these offensive that last can last months or even years, when smaller countries displease her. In recent years, Japan, South Korea and Singapore have displeased them. In the case of Japan, relations with China, alternate between freezes and warming.
If the society is as paranoia and racist as Australia as the Chinese media thinks, why is China racing to influence every Chinese community organization in Australia, donating millions to Australian politicians and political parties through its proxies. If You known you are putting your head in the hornet's nest why do it?
Among three countries Australia, Canada and New Zealand, Australia is the most paranoid.

CONTINUED IN COMMENTS

submitted by weilim to geopolitics [link] [comments]


2019.10.04 04:18 weilim Overview of China Influence and Interference Activities in Australia

INTRODUCTION

According to the Chinese government that don't conduct influence and interference operations in foreign countries. However, the Communist Party of China (CPC) have had influencing operations for both ethnic Chinese and others in foreign countries in 1930s, and this continued after the CPC seized control in 1949. In fact, the period between 1945-1965 for Hong Kong and countries like Indonesia and Myanmar were both the CPC and the Nationalist (KMT) both could operate, experienced intense and open influencing operations from both sides According to the former SIngaporean diplomat, Bilahari Kausikan said
First, China explicitly rejects the norm of not interfering in another state's domestic affairs and believes its interests should be promoted wherever they may be.
Second, China uses a range of tactics - from legitimate diplomacy to more covert and often illegal deployment of agents of influence and operations - to sway decision makers or public opinion leaders.
As countries want to keep diplomatic relations with Beijing on an even keel, they can end up overlooking or downplaying the subtler manipulation, he said.
Third, the aim of its influence operations is not just to direct behavior, but to condition behaviour.
He said: "China doesn't just want you to comply with its wishes, it wants you to... do what it wants without being told."
Other government use these legitimate diplomacy and other legal methods to influence, and many use illegal and covert methods.
While China just doesn't just target diaspora populations, diaspora communities with recent Chinese immigrants or were a high % of overseas Chinese still use language media are particularly attractive targets.
Chinese interference and influencing operations is a hot button issue in Australia but Canada and New Zealand as well. In /Australia and /Canada, topics regarding Chinese interference have reached top 20 post in the last month, for New Zealand its top 5. All three countries have large ethnic Chinese population. In terms of share of the population, ethnic Chinese in Australia, Canada and New Zealand make up 5.6% (2018), 5.1% (2017) and 4.2% (2013) of the respective. population. Asians make up 16%, 18% and 15% of their respective populations. In contrast, Chinese make up 1.5% of the US population, in the uK its 0.7% population. Outside Greater China, only Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand where ethnic Chinese make up a larger % of the population. Furthermore, most of Chinese in the three Anglo-Saxon counters have arrived in the last 30 years, in contrast to 100-140 years for Singapore and Malaysia.
Furthermore, the three Anglo Saxon societies are open with regards to first generation immigrants participating in politics. There are MP in all three countries who immigrated in their twenties or thirties. In contrast, in the US all foreign born Representatives in the House are 1.5 generation, meaning they arrived in the country as children, with the oldest being 16 when she arrived, Americans have accent discrimination, meaning they want someone to sound American to present them These countries are worried about if a MP is Chinese spy, because of his suspected links to Chinese military intelligence (which he didn't disclose when applying for residency), not whether he was a member of the Young Pioneers.. This is one reason why, some want New Zealand kicked out of the Five Eyes.
.In the last month alone there have been at least three separate issues regarding Chinese interference.
I believe Australia's increasing hostility toward China is driven largely by fear of Chinese interference and influence in domestic affairs as well as Chinese competition in Australia's Pacific backyard.

AUSTRALIA-CHINA STUCK WITH EACH OTHER ECONOMICALLY

I am going to explain Australia-China's economic ties. It is not as simple as China is the buyer and Australia's run a trade surplus with China, Australia must listen to China. When one is talking about trade dependency the key is how much a country export to China, not the total trade volume. Chinese has little leverage on the import side.
Australia is more dependent on exports to China than all Asian nations except for New Zealand, Taiwan, North Korea, Mongolia and Myanmar. About 31% of Australia's exports go to China. For Indonesia it is 12%, Thailand 11.4%, Vietnam 14.5%, Malaysia 16%, Japan 17.6%, South Korea 25%. US is the largest export destination for Thailand, Vietnam and Japan.
However, for physical goods Australia and China are joined at the hip economically, and China just can't walk away from Australia and find another seller for the top imports from Australia - Iron ore and Coal. Australia is the only seller that can meet China's demand for Iron and to a lesser extent Coal. These two products make up 2/3 of Australia's export earnings. Australia's is the top exporter of Iron ore, making up 50% of the world's iron exports. Brazil is number 2 at 22%, South Africa is 3 with 4.6% of world production. It is also the second largest producer with 825,000,000 metric tons a year, China produces 1,380,000,000 and the third largest producer Brazil produces 428,000,000.. China imports 1 Billion tonnes a year. China had suspected of restricting imports of Australian coal earlier in the year, again Australia makes up 38% of exports, Indonesia is second at 17%, Russia is 14% and US at 10%.
Secondly, while Chinese investment gets a lot of attention, and Australia received about AUD$10 Billion of Chinese investment, ASEAN received Billion US$15.6 from Hong Kong and China. Australia received the same % of Chinese direct investment relative to the size of her economy. However, Chinese investment investment in Australia, while high profile like in real estate, is still below that of Western countries in Australia and ASEAN. US investments alone make up 25% of total FDI capital stock in Australia vs 5.2% for China. In 2017, the US invested AUD$ 33 Billion vs 9 Billion for China and Hong Kong.
Thirdly, the 153,000 Chinese students make up the 40% of the total number of foreign students in Australia. They bring in about AUD$11 Billion in export revenue a year, that 0.8% of Australia's GDP
Unlike New Zealand, China's economic hold on Australia isn't strong enough that Australia will disregard China's threats to her security both internally and regionally.

CHINA MAIN METHODS OF INFLUENCE AND INTERFERENCE

CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE
AS I mentioned in a previous post, Contemporary China's Quest for Rejuvenation and the Century of Humiliation, I stress the importance of the Chinese government in controlling, making people believe and use their narrative. The Chinese government propotagates the notion that China was the dominant power in Asia, that it was non-expansionist and peaceful power. Chinese diplomats trained in China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU) according to a Western professor who taught at CFAU
A peaceful world player, who, although powerful in the past, had never viciously conquered or invaded others. The example of the Ming dynasty maritime explorer Zheng He (1371-1433) regularly featured in the discussion. China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU)
Sino-centric scholars like David Kang have contributed to this narrative, that Asia is peaceful when China is strong, and unstable when China is weak, and other challenge it like Japan. If you don't have the academic and historical knowledge its easy to fall for such narratives,
China sees its influence campaign to spread its narrative, and more importantly to get you to spread their narrative. Bilahari Kausikan says
"China doesn't just want you to comply with its wishes, it wants you to... do what it wants without being told" A key tactic is present the target with oversimplified narratives, "forcing false choices on you and making you choose between them", he said. For example, "America is the past and China is the future, so get on the right track", or that being close to the US makes it difficult to have a close economic relationship with China, he said.
PLAYING THE MAN
In the article, CONTRASTING CHINA’S AND RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE OPERATIONS, the author Peter Mattis, argues while the Russian excel at Set Piece Operations, the Chinese interference operations heavily involve "Playing the Man"
The Chinese, however, seem to focus on individuals rather than effects, on shaping the personal context rather than operational tricks. It is person-to-person relationships that carry the weight of Chinese information operations. Many of China’s first-generation diplomats and negotiators — including Zhou Enlai, Wu Xiuquan, Li Kenong, Xiong Xianghui, Liao Chengzhi, and many others — worked for some time as intelligence officers. For example, Li Kenong was Beijing’s chief negotiator at the Panmunjom talks with the United Nations during the Korean War and a vice foreign minister. His party career, however, began in intelligence where he was one of the “Three Heroes of the Dragon’s Lair” and rose to become a deputy director of the party’s intelligence service.
How the author cautions this aren't perfect distinctions, and both system use a variety of methods, and China is using some methods in relation to Taiwan. as the Russians did Ukraine.
I suspect the Chinese "play the man" stems for two reasons, By focusing on individuals, all you have to worry about is human psychology and base instinct (like money and sex. To conduct a broad Russian style influencing operation require understanding Western society. The second reason for this individualized approach mirror relations between states in Imperial China. Relations between China and her neighbors were couched in personal terms between sovereign and sovereign, but more importantly her long involvement with the Steppe nomads. For much of the last 1000 years, the biggest threat to China was a charismatic leader uniting and organizing the steppe nomads into invading China. This happened twice, with Genghis Khan and Nurhaci, the founder and ruler of the Manchus.
Chinese interference operations in Australia, involves "Playing the Man" hundreds if not thousands of times. They target academics, politicians, business people, and prominent members of society. If you do this enough and long enough, you will end up with hundred of times across various level of society you will end up with hundreds prominent influencers, and if China's spy agency, State Security Ministry does it, assets. The State Security Ministry, plays more of support role, than the FSB/KGB in Russia. The supposed Chinese hacking of Australia National University (ANU) , help in their efforts "Play the Man"

CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY AND THE UNITED FRONT

When dealing with officials in the Chinese government, one must remember at the end you are dealing with members of the Communist Party. China is a party state. While non-party members were common in the Chinese bureaucracy in the 1950s, now they are exceedingly rare
It would be safe to say all Chinese diplomats are party members. One would expect the primary bureaucracy China deals with the outside world would be less ideological, and that might have been the case in the past. However, the reality now is because they are dealing with foreigners, there has to be greater ideologization. Here is an article written by Merriden Varrall who taught International Relations and International Development at the China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU) in Beijing from 2009-2010. Here are the main points from the article:
The author sees the CPC desire for loyalty among diplomats, increasing the number of undiplomatic behavior among Chinese diplomats as we saw during the Kimberley Process in Western Australia in 2017. incidents in Europe, Chinese diplomats praising Chinese students groups for attacking Hong Kong protestors in Australia and New Zealand and suspected involvement in protesting a speech by Uighur Activist in Canada. This type behavior isn't approaching the behavior of Chinese diplomats of 60s yet, where Chinese diplomats attacked British police.
There is another factor which will increase the intensity of China's interference and influencing operations, most influencing efforts will be brought under the UFWD (United Front Work Department), the main influencing body, Most interference operations occurring prior to 2018 was amateurish and lacked coordination, because many UWFD had to work with other departments. The UWFD is an organizations found in China int the 1930s to win over non-Communist Party members to the Communist cause. They are responsible for managing influential elites and community groups inside and outside China. Among these groups include religious groups, ethnic minorities, Hong Kong-Taiwan-Macau and overseas Chinese. In the UFWD there is little division between internal and external operations This is For example, Overseas Chinese Affairs Office (OACO) used to be under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, now its under the UWFD. However, its effectiveness even with the reorganization is not certain, given they are using the same people they were using before.

HOW SERIOUS IS THE INTERFERENCE?

In this section I will list incidents and events of Chinese interference and influence that are substantive and others which aren't or classified.
POLITICAL
In early September, referencing the ASIO Director General, Duncan Lewis, the Guardian wrote
Australia’s outgoing spy chief says malevolent state espionage and foreign interference poses an “existential threat” to Australia in a way that extremist terrorism does not. Duncan Lewis, the director general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, will retire this month after a five-year term, handing over to Signals Directorate boss Mike Burgess. He told a Lowy Institute forum on Wednesday night that of the three major “vectors” threatening Australia’s security – espionage and foreign interference; terrorism; and cybersecurity – the interference of hostile state actors posed the most serious threat.
During his speech, he didn't once mention China. The basis of the Australia's National Security Legislation Amendment (Espionage and Foreign Interference) Act 2018 was a top secret report released in 2017. According to this article
One intelligence source told the ABC there had been infiltration at every layer of Australian Government, right down to local councils
Here I will list the main Chinese influencing political scandals that have occured in the last 3 years, not including the Gladys Liu scandal.
  1. The 2016 .scandal. Sam Dastyari was a Senator for the Labour Party, He asked a Education company,Top Education Institute, to pay for his staff travel expenses when he went over the allocated amount by AUD$ 1,670.82. Top Education Institutes is owned by Minshen Zhu. Mr Zhu is said to be highly regarded in China. He is a senior adviser to the University of Sydney's Confucius Institute, has connections to China's Fudan University and wields considerable clout at home as a delegate to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the Communist Party's people's forum, Dastyari had other expenses covered by organizations affiliated with the CPC. Sam Dastyari addressing a gathering of Chinese media in Sydney has revealed he offered a detailed defence of China's policy in the South China Sea, in defiance of official ALP policy
Here is a list of other instances of Chinese interference, but with weak proof.
To be honest, only the Gladys Liu and Sam Dastyari scandal were/are a concern. In the Gladys Liu's case its a witch hunt, not because she is Chinese, because Labor wants revenge because the Coalition did the same for Dastyari. Secondly, the Australian media focused on association with organizations like Guangdong provincial branch of the China Overseas Exchange Association the Australia Jiangmen General Commercial Association were linked with Overseas Chinese Affairs Office (OCAO). The OCAO only came under the United Front in 2018. Her mistake wasn't her association with such organizations, but failure to disclose it during preselection. Its understandable given that these organizations were seen as harmless 5 years ago, when they weren't directly under the control of UFWD, Thirdly, the Chinese media doesn't help China by defending Liu when she couldn't respond to simple questions from reporters. It gives the impression that China is backing Liu.
If Sam Dastyari and Gladys Liu had committed these acts today in Australia, they would most likely face criminal charges based on the new legislation passed in 2018.
UNIVERSITIES
The Education Minister, Dan Tehan, Australia will setup new university foreign interference task force that will consist of four working groups
To prevent and respond to cyber security incidents; to protect intellectual property and research; to ensure collaboration with foreign entities is transparent and does not harm Australian interests; and to foster “a positive security culture”
Here are several concerns and incidents that precipitated this
Chinese interference in Australian universities is the issue that has the most impact on Australia and your average Australians. Its going to be the more difficult to resolve given the dependency of Australian universities on Chinese students.
CHINESE AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY
This is the area where the Chinese Government has the most influence over. It comes in four forms.
Here are covert and illegal activities that the Chinese state is suspected of being involved, but not proven
China uses its influence in order to get its narrative across to Chinese living overseas. The bulk of the influence comes from its control of syndicated content and ownership of the media. Outside of Taiwan and Singapore, much of Chinese language media is pro-Beijing, so its not unique to Australia. When I say Pro-Beijing, there are different levels. A news channel getting all of its content from CGTN is just repeating the CPC line. With the pro-Beijing outside Mainland China like TVB its more gray. In areas the unity of China and their stance on the Hong Kong protest they adhere to Beijing's line, but differ in other areas.
According to Professor John Fitzgerald, who served as Representative of The Ford Foundation in Beijing
The party’s united front diplomacy gives particular grounds for concern where it reaches out to people of Chinese descent regardless of citizenship, demands their loyalty to the party, and engages in covert and coercive behaviour to silence Chinese-Australians who harbour deep affection for China but none for the party.

National Security Legislation Amendment (Espionage and Foreign Interference) Act 2018

The Act does the following
Federal Criminal Code to introduce the new national security offenses, and the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme Act 2018 establishes a registration scheme for communications activities undertaken on behalf of or in collaboration with certain foreigners. The Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Funding and Disclosure Reform) Bill 2017, which has yet to be passed, would ban foreign political donations along with other changes to electoral laws
Here are a list of foreign interference offences
  1. Illegal for a person to knowingly engage in covert conduct or deception on behalf of a “foreign principal” (which is defined to include any foreign government, foreign political organization, or related entities or persons) with the intention of influencing an Australian political process, the exercise of a vote or prejudicing national security.
  2. Illegal to attempt to influence a target in relation to any political process or exercise of an Australian democratic right (which the legislation leaves undefined) on behalf of or in collaboration with a foreign principal if this foreign connection is not disclosed to the target. (It is not necessary that the agent “have in mind a particular foreign principal” when engaging in the conduct )
For the above offenses the maximum penalty is 20 years if conduct is intentional, 15 years if done recklessly. National security is defined not only as the defense of the country but also its “political, military or economic relations” with other countries.
The registration scheme is as follows
A person who undertakes any general political lobbying or any kind of communications activity for the purpose of political influence on behalf of a foreign principal—that includes any foreign political organization—must register with the government within 14 days.
THe punishment for failing to do so is 2-5 years in imprisonment. This scheme is modeled on the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). While FARA states agents as any non-US person, Australia defines it as foreign governments and political organizations but unlike FARA there are no exemption for those already registered as lobbyist.
The Australian government intention claim its prophylactic, or in my opinion to scare people so they won't associate with said organizations. The Australian legislation has no provision to tackle the dissemination of false information on social media, but its most likely because the Australian government believes it has no clout with those companies.

CONTINUED IN COMMENTS

submitted by weilim to IntlScholars [link] [comments]


2019.09.19 07:33 mcdeltatjg Unpopular Opinion: 7 years and 2 Billion dollars later, the Confederation Line was not worth it!

I gotta admit: Like many Ottawans, I was excited about the Confederation Line... at first. There was a certain sense of pride that Ottawa was finally gonna "make it." We were finally gonna be a big city. We would have our very own Subway/Metro/LRT/Urban Rail. (Sure, we already had what is now called the Trillium line, since 2001 but that doesn't count! It doesn't go downtown!) We would be in a whole new category of city like Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver, New York, London, Tokyo or hwhat-ever... And I'll admit: I still do feel a certain sense of pride, now that it's finally here. Despite everything I'm about to say, I was one of the first people to ride the Confederation Line when it opened on Saturday. We made it, Ottawa! We're a big city now!
However, when the novelty wears off and we stop and think about it, we should ask ourselves: was it all worth it?
I say: no. For the following reasons:
  1. The TransitWay was already great
  2. The TransitWay's few problems could have been alleviated with simpler (likely cheaper and more flexible) solutions.
  3. People hate transferring
  4. The Confederation Line is too slow
  5. The Confederation Line took too long to build
  6. The Confederation Line costed too much.
  7. The Confederation Line ignores areas with high demand for public transit
  8. The novelty will wear off
I will elaborate on these reasons below:
  1. The TransitWay was already great: The TransitWay is, basically, a dedicated highway for busses. Outside downtown, busses zipped along the Transitway, often going faster than cars stuck in traffic on regular roads, during rush hour. And, if the regular roads are faster, busses have the flexibility to take regular roads. Just like cars, but unlike trains, busses have a lot of options. They don't have to stay on the same road. Cars don't have to take the highway all the way and, in fact, they often have to take other roads to get from point A to point B. The TransitWay provided an extra option for busses, like highways do for cars and all automotive traffic, but was not mandatory. Sure, there were routes that took the TransitWay almost exclusively, like the 95. But there were also busses, like the 33 that picked people up on regular roads and then hopped on the TransitWay like a highway, to take them downtown, eliminating the need for transfers, providing close to door-to-door service. Plus, busses on the TransitWay don't have to stop at all stations, if nobody is boarding or alighting and, because it is often four lanes, busses can easily pass other busses that are stopping at a station. If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
  2. The TransitWay's few problems could have been alleviated with simpler (likely cheaper and more flexible) solutions: Yes. The TransitWay was slow, downtown. Albert and Slater were often congested. There were bus traffic jams. But, the downtown portion wasn't truly TransitWay. It was just 2 at-grade bus lanes on Albert and Slater. Again, the TransitWay is supposed to be like a highway: four lanes, grade-separated and controlled access.
Think of the former downtown portion of the TransitWay like that stupid 8 km stretch of Québec's AutoRoute 20, that's basically an ordinary city street in Vaudreuil and Île-Perrot. Imagine the government of Québec fixing this problem by making you drive your car onto a train (like in the chunnel) at the Ontario border, taking a train across the island of Montréal (making a stop every 2 km) and finally letting you drive on your own again in Longueuil. Seems kinda overkill, doesn't it? Why not just make that 8km four-lane and grade separated? Likewise, the TransitWay could have been four-lanes and grade separated, downtown. There are four lanes each on Albert and Slater. They could have taken two lanes on each of those streets and built trenches for the WestBound and EastBound TransitWays, respectively, with the North-South cross streets (like Bank, Metcalfe, etc.) going over them like over-passes. They could have still had two lanes of regular traffic on each of these streets! This way: busses would not have to wait behind other busses that were loading/unloading, you could have local or express downtown busses and they wouldn't have to stop at intersections. (Yes, I know TransitWay busses got priority signals, but, still, this system was far from perfect. Full grade separation is far better.) Or, they could have still built the tunnel that they built for the Confederation Line, but used it for busses. They could have avoided passengers choking on the fumes through proper ventilation, separate waiting areas sealed off from the TransitWay with closing doors and their own ventilation (like at St Laurent station) or hybrid busses that use battery power or overhead trolley wires, in the tunnel. Surely, any one of these solutions would have been cheaper and quicker to implement than the Confederation Line, whilst preserving the flexibility of busses, as discussed above. The TransitWay can and often does take advantage of other existing road infrastructure, like HighWays. It doesn't do this enough, though, in my opinion. And, when it does, it can often be rather inefficient: exiting the HighWay every time it makes a stop, but they can make shoulder stops along the HighWay. In fact, they do, at QueensWay station, for example. There ought to be more stops like QueensWay station and less stops like Jeanne d'Arc. Another problem with the existing Transitway is that busses to/from the airport are too crowded, too cumbersome and take too long. Weary travelllers are often willing to pay a little more, but don't want to fumble with change, are tired and want to sit, want places to store their luggage and just want to get to their hotel, quickly. An express bus with luggage racks, more seats which only stops at the Airport, EY centre, Rodeo (Rideau) Centre and downtown stops in the tunnel / trenches described above would be much better. They should also make heated waiting areas and ticket vending machines, inside the airport . I think many travellers would be willing to pay at least $5 for this. I've taken the bus to the airport quite a few times and I've never really experienced congestion on the Airport ParkWay, but if there is, extending the (real) TransitWay to the Airport is a far better plan than making weary travellers take 3 different trains and stop at 11 different stations between the airport and Rideau Centre over 45+ minutes, as is the current plan for phase 2 LRT!
  1. People hate transferring: The funny thing is: I don't. But this is the main complaint I hear from other people. People don't like waiting in the cold, fighting crowds at Tunney's / Blair / Hurdman, etc. Even with phase 2, people will still have to transfer, just at, say, Jeanne d'Arc or Moodie, instead of Blair or Tunney's. Plus, OC's attempts to reduce the hassles of transferring, with the fair-paid zones, is an open invitation for fare evasion. I actually became an unwitting fare evader, this way, in Toronto. I wondered the whole time why I didn't have to walk through a fare gate. It's only later that I realized that I entered through the bus entrance, which I was, apparently, not supposed to do! 😛
  2. The Confederation Line is too Slow: This is my main complaint. I was all excited until I did the math. 12.5 km in 25 minutes = an average of 30 km/h! Oh wow! It's just zipping along, isn't it! I realize that trains can't (safely) start and stop on a dime, but, surely, it can go faster than it does. With the transferring, some people have found they actually have a longer commute. While it may be quicker for some people, that is compared to the interim state, where many busses were detoured onto regular roads cause the TransitWay was being converted into LRT. To really tell if it was faster, you'd have to compare to travel times before the launch of LRT construction. Alas, I couldn't find any old schedules. I suspect OC buried this info on purpose. It's a cover up! Maybe it's slow cause they made too many stops. Did they really have to squeeze 13 stations into 12.5 km? They could have done without Tremblay, Lees, Lyon, Bayview, Cyrville or Blair, for that matter. Covered walkways could make walking a bit further to the stations more bearable. I know that trains can't turn on a dime, either, but, again, maybe they could have stuck with busses. inB4: What about those taking the Trillium line? Don't they have to transfer at BayView? Meh, Pimisi/LeBreton is close enough. Plus, it's pretty much just Carleton students. And the 10 is pretty much just as fast, if you're going to Carleton, even though it has to go through regular traffic. As is the 104. It would be even faster if it went downtown, or didn't stop along the way! Or, you know, they could go to a decent school, like uOttawa!
  3. The Confederation Line took too long to build: Part of the reason for this is they suffered a lot of set-backs like SinkHoles and des trains de merde! These problems could have been avoided by the use of trenches and busses, respectively. Plus, they could have just focused on improving the 2.5 km downtown between LeBreton and Laurier and left the TransitWay west of LeBreton and East of Laurier alone.
  4. The Confederation Line costed too much: Again, downtown trenches and busses would have saved a lot of money vs a tunnel and trains. Plus, from Hurdman to Blair, the tracks go, pretty much, parallel to the QueensWay. Why not just run busses on the QueensWay? If that's not good enough, make more shoulder stops and/or bus lanes along the QueensWay. Surely, this would've been cheaper than creating a brand new rail line!
  5. The Confederation Line ignores areas with high demand for public transit: You know which neighbourhood has a huge demand for public transit? Just look at which bus routes are the most crowded: the #12, along Montréal Rd, in Vanier! Say what you will about Vanier, but they actually take the bus. They are a huge source of demand and revenue for OC, but they're never gonna get LRT cause... screw the poor!
  6. The novelty will wear off: In the immortal words of Barney Stinson: New is always better! I get it: trains are cool. Sophisticated, hwhite, upper-middle, young childless, urban professionals like myself take the train. As do 39% of New Yorkers. Busses are for the poor and suckers. But, get over it. Busses can be faster than trains. Or even cars. (At rush hour. With a Transitway or, at least, bus lanes)
In conclusion, when the Hannukah's over, we are going to be missing the TransitWay. It was faster and cheaper than the Confederation Line. It just needed a few tweaks.
submitted by mcdeltatjg to ottawa [link] [comments]


2019.09.09 16:47 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch September 2nd - September 9th

Tuesday

Role Queue enabled for Competitive Season 18!

Career Profile Bug
Hey everyone,
We’ve identified a bug that prevents Competitive Season 18 stats from being shown in the Career Profile until placement matches are finished in any role or playing one match in each role. We’re actively investigating solutions and will update with more information when we have a fix.
Thanks for the reports!

Wednesday

[Schreier] Overwatch Comes To Switch Next Month

If quickplay classic is now in the arcade section, at least let us get achievements
we'll look into adding achievements to quickplay classic. good suggestion.
Do you think there should be more than five modes in arcade now that QP classic is moved?
we'll be updating the arcade in october to accommodate more cards. good suggestion
https://i.imgur.com/eiHqVZN.png
Endless (player) has left/joined game bug?
Hey there, we have a fix for this bug internally and expect it to go live with the 1.40 release. Cheers.

Video Overwatch Nintendo Switch Announcement

Friday

Sigma nerf/Sombra buff on PTR
Confirming this is an intended change for 1.40.
Revert hero balance back to where it was before Goats
Hey there,
Balance changes take time and there will of course be more to come. We’ve just barely entered into 2-2-2 role queue and released a new hero at the same time. It’s important to collect statistics/data, as well as feedback to make informed decisions.
Reverting all balance changes over the last year is unlikely to happen. Any hero change could potentially affect a meta to some degree, but not all changes are directly targeted at the current meta, if that makes sense.
For some transparency, we’ve known for awhile that we would be moving to a 2-2-2 format (it required a long time to implement) and not all changes over the last year were directly targeted at affecting the 3-3 GOATS meta (eg. Soldier, McCree, Junkrat buffs).
The goal of the changes that actually were aimed at GOATS was not to kill it entirely but to weaken it enough, without destroying the individual heroes, that other new comps could arise to compete with it. Though it took a long time, with the results of stage 3 I consider that at least somewhat successful. Even if solutions are hypothetically available, any meta is ultimately dictated by the players.
Aside from meta considerations, it’s important to prioritize individual hero balance which is why we’re tuning Zarya and Symmetra damage output. The recent beam bug fix was much more potent than expected, with those heroes on average seeing a 20-40% increase in damage. Their original damage values were tuned without knowledge of this bug.
Thanks for your feedback!

OWL News Playoffs

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

World Cup

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Competitiveoverwatch [link] [comments]


2019.09.09 16:47 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch September 2nd - September 9th

Tuesday

Role Queue enabled for Competitive Season 18!

Career Profile Bug
Hey everyone,
We’ve identified a bug that prevents Competitive Season 18 stats from being shown in the Career Profile until placement matches are finished in any role or playing one match in each role. We’re actively investigating solutions and will update with more information when we have a fix.
Thanks for the reports!

Wednesday

[Schreier] Overwatch Comes To Switch Next Month

If quickplay classic is now in the arcade section, at least let us get achievements
we'll look into adding achievements to quickplay classic. good suggestion.
Do you think there should be more than five modes in arcade now that QP classic is moved?
we'll be updating the arcade in october to accommodate more cards. good suggestion
https://i.imgur.com/eiHqVZN.png
Endless (player) has left/joined game bug?
Hey there, we have a fix for this bug internally and expect it to go live with the 1.40 release. Cheers.

Video Overwatch Nintendo Switch Announcement

Friday

Sigma nerf/Sombra buff on PTR
Confirming this is an intended change for 1.40.
Revert hero balance back to where it was before Goats
Hey there,
Balance changes take time and there will of course be more to come. We’ve just barely entered into 2-2-2 role queue and released a new hero at the same time. It’s important to collect statistics/data, as well as feedback to make informed decisions.
Reverting all balance changes over the last year is unlikely to happen. Any hero change could potentially affect a meta to some degree, but not all changes are directly targeted at the current meta, if that makes sense.
For some transparency, we’ve known for awhile that we would be moving to a 2-2-2 format (it required a long time to implement) and not all changes over the last year were directly targeted at affecting the 3-3 GOATS meta (eg. Soldier, McCree, Junkrat buffs).
The goal of the changes that actually were aimed at GOATS was not to kill it entirely but to weaken it enough, without destroying the individual heroes, that other new comps could arise to compete with it. Though it took a long time, with the results of stage 3 I consider that at least somewhat successful. Even if solutions are hypothetically available, any meta is ultimately dictated by the players.
Aside from meta considerations, it’s important to prioritize individual hero balance which is why we’re tuning Zarya and Symmetra damage output. The recent beam bug fix was much more potent than expected, with those heroes on average seeing a 20-40% increase in damage. Their original damage values were tuned without knowledge of this bug.
Thanks for your feedback!

OWL News Playoffs

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

World Cup

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Overwatch [link] [comments]


2019.06.17 19:01 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch June 10th - June 17th

Tuesday

Overwatch League Replay Viewer: See Matches From a New Perspective

Wednesday

Found a blast from the past: Overwatch launch day and everyone on twitch stuck on the loading screen
Awesome screenshot, that brings back so many memories.
Just before we went live our QA team noticed a data issue. Jesse, our lead server engineer, knew he could fix the issue in about 10 minutes. We delayed the launch to let him run off and do that work quickly, but during that time there was a massive amount of people trying to login. Everyone repeating that login flow is very demanding on the Battle.net infrastructure. Just as Jesse was finishing up his work, engineers from that team were on the conference bridge asking us to go live as soon as we could. I'll never forget the tone in their voice, the sense of urgency was very pronounced!
Cheers
OWL VIEWER BUG : Dva
Thanks for the report. We are looking into this issue further.

Thursday

I was testing the replay viewer when I noticed that the players' names are under the opponent team banner. Do you guys also have this problem (I tried with other teams) ? Nobody seems to complain about this.
Hey everyone, this is a bug we're aware of and we have it fixed for the next stage. Unfortunately it's not something we can fix now during Stage 3. Cheers!

Sunday

Servers RIPERINO
Hey there. We’re not aware of any server issues right now. I’ll dig into our network quality data and see if I can find any details. Perhaps a regional or isp issue.
Visual explanation of the Bug with Brig's Rally Armor
Hey there thanks for the awesome visual post for this. I’m not sure what the design intent is here so I’ll make sure our hero designers check this out tomorrow.
Cheers, hope everyone had a great weekend.

OWL News Stage 3 Week 2

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

World Cup

Meet the Top 10 Countries and All Committees

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Competitiveoverwatch [link] [comments]


2019.06.17 19:01 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch June 10th - June 17th

Tuesday

Overwatch League Replay Viewer: See Matches From a New Perspective

Wednesday

Found a blast from the past: Overwatch launch day and everyone on twitch stuck on the loading screen
Awesome screenshot, that brings back so many memories.
Just before we went live our QA team noticed a data issue. Jesse, our lead server engineer, knew he could fix the issue in about 10 minutes. We delayed the launch to let him run off and do that work quickly, but during that time there was a massive amount of people trying to login. Everyone repeating that login flow is very demanding on the Battle.net infrastructure. Just as Jesse was finishing up his work, engineers from that team were on the conference bridge asking us to go live as soon as we could. I'll never forget the tone in their voice, the sense of urgency was very pronounced!
Cheers
OWL VIEWER BUG : Dva
Thanks for the report. We are looking into this issue further.

Thursday

I was testing the replay viewer when I noticed that the players' names are under the opponent team banner. Do you guys also have this problem (I tried with other teams) ? Nobody seems to complain about this.
Hey everyone, this is a bug we're aware of and we have it fixed for the next stage. Unfortunately it's not something we can fix now during Stage 3. Cheers!

Sunday

Servers RIPERINO
Hey there. We’re not aware of any server issues right now. I’ll dig into our network quality data and see if I can find any details. Perhaps a regional or isp issue.
Visual explanation of the Bug with Brig's Rally Armor
Hey there thanks for the awesome visual post for this. I’m not sure what the design intent is here so I’ll make sure our hero designers check this out tomorrow.
Cheers, hope everyone had a great weekend.

OWL News Stage 3 Week 2

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

World Cup

Meet the Top 10 Countries and All Committees

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Overwatch [link] [comments]


2019.06.10 16:38 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch June 3rd - June 10th

Monday

Bug Report; Teams can’t join VC
Hey folks, engineers who support our voice platform found an issue that is now resolved. Thank you for the reports, sorry for the hassle.
Cheers

Tuesday

Video Overwatch Devs Share Plans for the Future of the Workshop! Unit Lost

Queue Times in Comp
Hey there, we found a bug that causes very long queue times for a specific set of users. We have a fix internally and we're working on rolling it out as a server side fix today. Sorry for this one.
Cheers

Thursday

[Schreier] Sources: Blizzard Cancels StarCraft First-Person Shooter To Focus On Diablo 4 And Overwatch 2

Self-Destruct disappears
Hey there, we're digging into this. Currently we believe this is a visual only bug.
Cheers.

Friday

imagine thinking blizzard is going to look at this post and be like sure guys np! PepeLaugh
sure guys np!
Blizz PLEASE make aim assist target immortality field (console)
We’re getting these changes into QA and hoping they can land on the 1.38 release. Unfortunately not next week but not too far off in the future.
Hope everyone has an excellent weekend. Cheers
Iran - Can’t join any games after latest update
Hey folks, we’ve researched this issue and believe the problem is due to packet filtering or connectivity between customer ISPs in Iran and Amazon AWS. Overwatch leverages Amazon AWS infrastructure in Europe region when necessary, this is usually during new content updates.
In addition to having reported the issue here, we recommend players report this issue directly to their ISP support as well.
Server Restart every game on Busan, Junkertown, and Nepal, PS4-NA-West Coast
Hey there we tracked down this issue and have resolved it. Sorry for the hassle. Cheers

Saturday

Voice chat issue
I’ll pass this along to our compatibility QA team. Sorry you’re having issues. Cheers.
OWL Replays When?
Hey there, the current target is for this coming week.
[PS4] How active is the game?
Hey there, our PS4 community is going strong! Taking a quick peak at our matchmaking data it looks like the average queue time for PS4 players in the past week fluctuates between about 60 to 80 seconds.
Cheers

OWL News Stage 3 Week 1

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Competitiveoverwatch [link] [comments]


2019.06.10 16:38 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch June 3rd - June 10th

Monday

Bug Report; Teams can’t join VC
Hey folks, engineers who support our voice platform found an issue that is now resolved. Thank you for the reports, sorry for the hassle.
Cheers

Tuesday

Video Overwatch Devs Share Plans for the Future of the Workshop! Unit Lost

Queue Times in Comp
Hey there, we found a bug that causes very long queue times for a specific set of users. We have a fix internally and we're working on rolling it out as a server side fix today. Sorry for this one.
Cheers

Thursday

[Schreier] Sources: Blizzard Cancels StarCraft First-Person Shooter To Focus On Diablo 4 And Overwatch 2

Self-Destruct disappears
Hey there, we're digging into this. Currently we believe this is a visual only bug.
Cheers.

Friday

imagine thinking blizzard is going to look at this post and be like sure guys np! PepeLaugh
sure guys np!
Blizz PLEASE make aim assist target immortality field (console)
We’re getting these changes into QA and hoping they can land on the 1.38 release. Unfortunately not next week but not too far off in the future.
Hope everyone has an excellent weekend. Cheers
Iran - Can’t join any games after latest update
Hey folks, we’ve researched this issue and believe the problem is due to packet filtering or connectivity between customer ISPs in Iran and Amazon AWS. Overwatch leverages Amazon AWS infrastructure in Europe region when necessary, this is usually during new content updates.
In addition to having reported the issue here, we recommend players report this issue directly to their ISP support as well.
Server Restart every game on Busan, Junkertown, and Nepal, PS4-NA-West Coast
Hey there we tracked down this issue and have resolved it. Sorry for the hassle. Cheers

Saturday

Voice chat issue
I’ll pass this along to our compatibility QA team. Sorry you’re having issues. Cheers.
OWL Replays When?
Hey there, the current target is for this coming week.
[PS4] How active is the game?
Hey there, our PS4 community is going strong! Taking a quick peak at our matchmaking data it looks like the average queue time for PS4 players in the past week fluctuates between about 60 to 80 seconds.
Cheers

OWL News Stage 3 Week 1

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Overwatch [link] [comments]


2019.04.23 05:15 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch April 15th - April 22nd

Tuesday

Video Overwatch Seasonal Event Storm Rising Overwatch Archives

Video Developer Update Storm Rising

Patch Notes: April 16, 2019

1.35 Known Issues List

Video Overwatch Patch 16 April Overview itsjieyang

If the patch is replacing old stuff, is it worth deleting and redone loading completely?
Hey there, no need to do that, though you can if you want. The Blizzard Desktop App will automatically clean up files to save you space when it can. Cheers!
Why are OW's patches so large?
Hey there, occasionally we do a "remaster" release which is necessary for console but also helps reduce wasted space for PC players as well. Because we know these releases will be large downloads we also tend to fix bugs in core assets that, when touched, require downloading the entire asset again.
We know these have an impact on folks with limited data and we try to limit the need for these as much as possible. Apologies for any hassle.
Cheers
But you could've let us pre load the update if you knew it was gonna be 24 gigs on console.
From what I understand we're unable to do any pre-load on Console because we publish through the 1st Party systems. I'll check with our console producer to be sure, it's something I'd love to do if it was possible.
So… Did the servers just crashed?
Hey folks, we identified a crash in one of our servers and we just rolled out a fix for it. We’re working on increasing login rates to get everyone through the queue quickly. Apologies for the hassle.

Wednesday

Game and system crashing: VoiceClient issue?
The Windows Event Viewer could be useful as a troubleshooting tool here as well. Those voice system log messages aren’t particularly concerning and unfortunately don’t indicate anything about the root problem you’re experiencing.

Thursday

Video [COMING SOON] Havana New Escort Map

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – April 18, 2019

1.35.1 Known Issues

Friday

Problem with storm rising score
Heroes, we are aware that the final score for successful Storm Rising runs is not being calculated accurately and we’re working to implement a fix for all platforms as soon as possible.
Thanks for helping us identify this issue through your reports!

OWL News Stage 2 Week 3

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Competitiveoverwatch [link] [comments]


2019.04.23 05:15 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch April 15th - April 22nd

Tuesday

Video Overwatch Seasonal Event Storm Rising Overwatch Archives

Video Developer Update Storm Rising

Patch Notes: April 16, 2019

1.35 Known Issues List

Video Overwatch Patch 16 April Overview itsjieyang

If the patch is replacing old stuff, is it worth deleting and redone loading completely?
Hey there, no need to do that, though you can if you want. The Blizzard Desktop App will automatically clean up files to save you space when it can. Cheers!
Why are OW's patches so large?
Hey there, occasionally we do a "remaster" release which is necessary for console but also helps reduce wasted space for PC players as well. Because we know these releases will be large downloads we also tend to fix bugs in core assets that, when touched, require downloading the entire asset again.
We know these have an impact on folks with limited data and we try to limit the need for these as much as possible. Apologies for any hassle.
Cheers
But you could've let us pre load the update if you knew it was gonna be 24 gigs on console.
From what I understand we're unable to do any pre-load on Console because we publish through the 1st Party systems. I'll check with our console producer to be sure, it's something I'd love to do if it was possible.
So… Did the servers just crashed?
Hey folks, we identified a crash in one of our servers and we just rolled out a fix for it. We’re working on increasing login rates to get everyone through the queue quickly. Apologies for the hassle.

Wednesday

Game and system crashing: VoiceClient issue?
The Windows Event Viewer could be useful as a troubleshooting tool here as well. Those voice system log messages aren’t particularly concerning and unfortunately don’t indicate anything about the root problem you’re experiencing.

Thursday

Video [COMING SOON] Havana New Escort Map

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – April 18, 2019

1.35.1 Known Issues

Friday

Problem with storm rising score
Heroes, we are aware that the final score for successful Storm Rising runs is not being calculated accurately and we’re working to implement a fix for all platforms as soon as possible.
Thanks for helping us identify this issue through your reports!

OWL News Stage 2 Week 3

Atlanta Reign

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge

Hangzhou Spark

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior

Paris Eternal

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant

Vancouver Titans

Washington D.C. Justice

Contenders News

North America

Europe

Korea

China

Australia

South America

Pacific

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Overwatch [link] [comments]


2019.03.07 17:47 gwaksl Federal Seat Projection: LPC 120.2 (33.0%), CPC 166.6 (36.7%), NDP 36.9 (14.6%), GPC 4.3 (7.7%), BQ 10 (4.5%) 32% Chance of CPC Majority

Federal Seat Projection: LPC 120.2 (33.0%), CPC 166.6 (36.7%), NDP 36.9 (14.6%), GPC 4.3 (7.7%), BQ 10 (4.5%) 32% Chance of CPC Majority

Notes

This is a seat projection based on the average number of seats won if the election were tomorrow following a 10 000 run Monte Carlo simulation based on a regional uniform swing model, as well as income, education, and population (age) data forecasted to 2019 extrapolated from the 2016 survey by Statistics Canada by Environics Research. The model assumes a turnout of 63.7% derived from the turnout of past federal elections.
Polls are weighted on recency and track record within a writ period (I assume elections are being held tomorrow), and are calculated automatically. Weights are assessed a penalty if they deviate from the average by more than a standard deviation. Weights are as follows: Nanos 20.2%, Forum 15.5%, Abacus 14.5%, Innovative 13.2%, Angus Reid 11.1%, Ipsos 7.9%. All other polls have weights ~5% or less.
Past Projections

Projection

Poll averages (To Nearest Tenth)
Party National Atlantic Quebec Ontario MB/SK Alberta BC
LPC 33.0 41.6 36.9 36.2 24.4 16.3 31.1
CPC 36.7 33.1 23.1 37.4 49.7 63.6 32.9
NDP 14.6 11.3 11.5 16.1 14.3 11.1 19.8
GPC 7.7 8.6 7.4 7.2 6.5 4.6 11.9
BQ 4.5 17.6
Odds (Percentage of times an outcome is achieved after 10 000 simulations)
Liberal Majority Liberal Minority Conservative Majority Conservative Minority Tie
0% 0% 31.77% 68.23% 0%
Note: the probability model has been reworked in an attempt to provide more precise values.
Seat Counts
National Seat Count
https://preview.redd.it/5rw8hndjzpk21.png?width=1211&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b3b14d465b5b16b132b19b55e0facbc7cf3aa10
https://preview.redd.it/6bdtxqqkzpk21.png?width=1211&format=png&auto=webp&s=0de91337564b29a49de6a8b42ef0fad0d2de41ec
https://preview.redd.it/r2dzvkdmzpk21.png?width=1213&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b5b2df52e2f9c3eb1722516bcd45b0059f9aca1
https://preview.redd.it/prk85u8ozpk21.png?width=1216&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6a6981f53e85dfb03c4aa980cc2586050cd3baa
https://preview.redd.it/sa4ehtdqzpk21.png?width=1217&format=png&auto=webp&s=7400f534aea1cfc2c3aab35a93f0c0e199b39c19
https://preview.redd.it/d3y7v7cszpk21.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7523aa4049d2fb948516faaf742b0ab2f8b96d4
The far right edge shows one solid Green seat, 7 lean Bloc seats, and one likely Bloc Seat. Solid >95% chance of winning, Likely >75%, Lean >60%. Tossup <60%.
Waterfall Charts
Below are some new graphics I have created for this projection. I have broken down the 338 seats in Canada into 37 regions as suggested by wikipedia. The names of these regions are listed on the X axis. The correct way to read this chart is to look at the coloured bar first from left to right: this is the number of seats up for grabs in each region. The grey bar adjacent is the number of seats that party failed to win. The next coloured bar begins at the bottom of the grey bar to its left. I have arranged these bars in the way that the results would be expected to roll in on TV.
As we can see, the Liberals are particularly strong in Montreal and Toronto, which are very seat rich areas. (Note the small grey bars, and longer red bars). What is problematic for the Liberals is they are expected to drop many seats in S. Durham and York, as well as the Hamilton, Burlington, Niagara region. Their relative strength in Peel is staving off a CPC majority. Due to the potential of practically no gains in the prairies, it is critical the Liberals win these areas.
The Conservatives in this projection are very close to a majority. Areas for them to target would be Peel and the Toronto Suburbs as these are better targets than the city of Montreal. If a Conservative majority government were to form, this is the likely electoral coalition that would carry them to victory.
Note the change in the X axis made for easier visibility. The NDP are doing reasonably well, and Singh may retain the seat count set by Mulcair, despite being down in the polls vs Mulcair. As we can see, they pick up seats here and there, but have the most strength in BC. Their best region for growth is likely Peel. Favourable demographics there and a lot of potential for growth.
Note the X axis again. Note where the bases of these lines shift. The Greens might be suited to pick up a seat in the Atlantic provinces, might win some in the prairies, but perhaps unsurprisingly their best potential for growth is on Vancouver Island.
The Bloc are strongest in Central Quebec and may pickup a smattering of seats elsewhere. Blanchet will likely focus on the Montreal suburbs and central Quebec as that is the traditional BQ stronghold.

Maps

Due to areas of weakness and strength better being displayed by the waterfall maps, I've instead produced a "no-tossup" map to show you. Opaque colours are safer seats, more transparent colours are softer.

National
Atlantic Canada
Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City
Southern Ontario
Southern British Columbia
submitted by gwaksl to CanadaPolitics [link] [comments]


2018.11.19 21:34 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch November 12th - November 19th

Monday

1.30 PTR Concluded
Thanks for helping us test Ashe & Bob! We are now concluding the 1.30 Public Test. The Public Test Region will not be accessible until we update with new content. You can continue to provide additional feedback and bug reports here if needed. Thank you for … doing something.

Tuesday

Overwatch Patch Notes - November 13, 2018

Video Overwatch Patch 13 November Rundown - u/itsjieyang

I don’t have PTR installed but it was ponly 500mb for me.
We also initiated a background download (aka prepatch) for this 1.30 update late last week. This prepatch allowed for a smaller update today.
Cheers!
PTR Bug where the game would stop loading after a certain point persists in Live
Hey there, we’re investigating this. As much detail as you’re able to provide (hardware specs, etc) may help us more quickly identify the problem. Thanks for your patience.

1.30 Known Issues List

Video Patch 1.30 Highlights

FYI this isn't the reinstall patch it seems. That will have to be the next one.
Hey there, this is the "reinstall" or "remaster" patch. There was some confusion from our post, you do not actually have to manually reinstall the game. We were just trying to convey the download would be close to the full size of the game. The Blizzard Desktop Client handles the reinstall magic behind the scenes.
Your download was "small" because we started pre-loading this patch late last week. Also if you had PTR installed the desktop client will copy over files that can be used for the live game.
Cheers!
Mine is 19.4 GB (PS4). Are you console or PC? I think that only console players had to reinstall but don’t quote me on that.
The "reinstall" was for all platforms. For PC we're able to start a pre-download which we initiated late last week. Unfortunately for console players we cannot do this so you have to download the whole patch when we make the new version available.
Cheers!
Will client side settings automatically be preserved during the "reinstall" / "remaster" patching process?
Hey there, yep, all your client settings will be preserved. The only thing abnormal about the 1.30 patch today is the size.
Did blizzard add new east coast servers?
The "use1" datacenter is available occasionally, usually when we have a large patch like today with Ashe.
Cheers!
What if Brigitte doesn’t use her shield to bash?
We do have one shield bash change we are playtesting right now, which is likely to hit the next PTR: Shield Bash no longer going through barriers.
This means it is a lot more tricky to land a clutch stun on an enemy Reinhardt, for example, but you can still use the ability to close distance and land melee hits to trigger Inspire.
Problems with load of the ptr client
Hey folks, we’ve addressed this issue on live and we’re working to release a patch to fix the problem. Apologies for the hassle, we very much appreciate the info from you that helped us track down the problem.
Closing this thread, further discussion can take place in the live version of this thread which is here.

Wednesday

Lucio oh’s cereal: Will it include a free toy inside?
There will not be a toy, but you will be granted a Loot Boost!
What is a Loot Boost?
A Loot Boost will grant you an additional standard Overwatch Loot Box the next three times you level up in-game. More details will be revealed here once this kicks off December 3rd.

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – November 14, 2018

I agree he needs some QoL changes and maybe a buff, but he is still versatile.
Hey there! So there actually was a small change (though relatively minor) for Soldier: 76 that seems to have gotten left out of the notes. I’ll try to get those updated but people may have left for the day.
Soldier: 76
Tactical Visor
No longer makes Helix Rockets auto-target enemies.
Developer Comments : The intent of Tactical Visor is to make Soldier: 76 unable to miss during its duration. However, Helix Rockets have travel time, so if they were fired directly at an enemy they would often miss a moving target at further ranges. This change allows players to freely aim Helix Rockets while still auto-aiming his primary fire.
Ashe's voice lines either aren't finished or she's bugged- she thinks every single map is route 66
Hey there, thanks for this bug report. We have a fix for this internally but it may not be out until the next major patch. Cheers!

Thursday

Play Overwatch Free November 20-26

Windows Spatial Audio Review
The newest 1.31 PTR has Windows Spatial Audio re-enabled. Please keep the feedback coming on this feature. These reports have been extremely valuable for us.

1.31 Known Issues List

Friday

Incoming PTR Changes
This post is to track further updates to the PTR as we make them. The following changes are planned for a PTR patch that will probably come on Monday.

Brigitte

Shield Bash
  • Damage reduced from 50 to 5
Inspire Passive
  • Cooldown reduced from 1.5s to 1.0s
  • Duration increased from 5s to 6s
  • Total healing increased from 80 to 100
Dev Notes: Reduces Shield Bash’s damage reduces her total stun combo damage potential while still allowing Whip Shot and her basic melee attacks to retain their full strength. Brigitte is a hybrid tank/healer, and lately we’ve been reducing her effectiveness by reducing the power of her non-healing functionality, but we want to make sure she is still a viable pick so we’re increasing the uptime of her Inspire passive to help increase her overall healing output.

Doomfist

Seismic Slam
  • Victims no longer lose air control while being pulled in.
Skydrop
  • Inner ring damage radius increased from 1.5m to 2.0m. This is the ring where Skydrop deals its full 300 damage.
  • Max damage outside of inner ring decreased from 300 to 200. This is the ring where damage falloff happens, which still reduces the damage down to 15 at max range.
Dev Notes: The PTR Doomfist changes are all about trying to give his enemies more opportunities to effectively fight back, and these changes are no exception. The Skydrop changes will make it harder to secure a “free” kill on heroes without mobility such as Zenyatta or Ana, while still preserving its max potential damage when aimed well or when comboing with other abilities such as Graviton Surge or Sleep Dart.
Overall we’re looking carefully at the amount of crowd control abilities (such as stuns and knockbacks that remove air control) and seeing if we can remove or reduce some of the effectiveness of some of these. Any further changes to this PTR will be posted in this thread as well.

Saturday

Another update?
Hey there, this update fixed a bug that prevented certain locales from accessing the in game shop.
Cheers

Monday

Does Overwatch Legendary Edition use the same save data as Overwatch Origins edition? (PS4)
Yep this will work just fine. Cheers!
Is there anyone managing the @owpathtopro account anymore now that Rob is gone? The account hasn't tweeted in four days, and since then three Contenders regions have started playing. No "we're live" tweets, no promos, no content at all. Can we at least try?
Good call out. I’ll dig into this, thanks posting this here. Cheers.
When will Ashe be available in Competitive?
On the 27th around 11am pacific. Cheers !

OWL News Offseason Free Agency Tracker

Atlanta Reign Expansion Team

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters Expansion Team

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge Expansion Team

Hangzhou Spark Expansion Team

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire Season 1 Champions

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior(NYXL)

Paris Eternal Expansion Team

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant Expansion Team

Vancouver ??? Expansion Team

Washington D.C. ??? Expansion Team

Contenders News

World Cup News South Korea Three-peats

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Competitiveoverwatch [link] [comments]


2018.11.19 21:34 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch November 12th - November 19th

Monday

1.30 PTR Concluded
Thanks for helping us test Ashe & Bob! We are now concluding the 1.30 Public Test. The Public Test Region will not be accessible until we update with new content. You can continue to provide additional feedback and bug reports here if needed. Thank you for … doing something.

Tuesday

Overwatch Patch Notes - November 13, 2018

Video Overwatch Patch 13 November Rundown - u/itsjieyang

I don’t have PTR installed but it was ponly 500mb for me.
We also initiated a background download (aka prepatch) for this 1.30 update late last week. This prepatch allowed for a smaller update today.
Cheers!
PTR Bug where the game would stop loading after a certain point persists in Live
Hey there, we’re investigating this. As much detail as you’re able to provide (hardware specs, etc) may help us more quickly identify the problem. Thanks for your patience.

1.30 Known Issues List

Video Patch 1.30 Highlights

FYI this isn't the reinstall patch it seems. That will have to be the next one.
Hey there, this is the "reinstall" or "remaster" patch. There was some confusion from our post, you do not actually have to manually reinstall the game. We were just trying to convey the download would be close to the full size of the game. The Blizzard Desktop Client handles the reinstall magic behind the scenes.
Your download was "small" because we started pre-loading this patch late last week. Also if you had PTR installed the desktop client will copy over files that can be used for the live game.
Cheers!
Mine is 19.4 GB (PS4). Are you console or PC? I think that only console players had to reinstall but don’t quote me on that.
The "reinstall" was for all platforms. For PC we're able to start a pre-download which we initiated late last week. Unfortunately for console players we cannot do this so you have to download the whole patch when we make the new version available.
Cheers!
Will client side settings automatically be preserved during the "reinstall" / "remaster" patching process?
Hey there, yep, all your client settings will be preserved. The only thing abnormal about the 1.30 patch today is the size.
Did blizzard add new east coast servers?
The "use1" datacenter is available occasionally, usually when we have a large patch like today with Ashe.
Cheers!
What if Brigitte doesn’t use her shield to bash?
We do have one shield bash change we are playtesting right now, which is likely to hit the next PTR: Shield Bash no longer going through barriers.
This means it is a lot more tricky to land a clutch stun on an enemy Reinhardt, for example, but you can still use the ability to close distance and land melee hits to trigger Inspire.
Problems with load of the ptr client
Hey folks, we’ve addressed this issue on live and we’re working to release a patch to fix the problem. Apologies for the hassle, we very much appreciate the info from you that helped us track down the problem.
Closing this thread, further discussion can take place in the live version of this thread which is here.

Wednesday

Lucio oh’s cereal: Will it include a free toy inside?
There will not be a toy, but you will be granted a Loot Boost!
What is a Loot Boost?
A Loot Boost will grant you an additional standard Overwatch Loot Box the next three times you level up in-game. More details will be revealed here once this kicks off December 3rd.

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – November 14, 2018

I agree he needs some QoL changes and maybe a buff, but he is still versatile.
Hey there! So there actually was a small change (though relatively minor) for Soldier: 76 that seems to have gotten left out of the notes. I’ll try to get those updated but people may have left for the day.
Soldier: 76
Tactical Visor
No longer makes Helix Rockets auto-target enemies.
Developer Comments : The intent of Tactical Visor is to make Soldier: 76 unable to miss during its duration. However, Helix Rockets have travel time, so if they were fired directly at an enemy they would often miss a moving target at further ranges. This change allows players to freely aim Helix Rockets while still auto-aiming his primary fire.
Ashe's voice lines either aren't finished or she's bugged- she thinks every single map is route 66
Hey there, thanks for this bug report. We have a fix for this internally but it may not be out until the next major patch. Cheers!

Thursday

Play Overwatch Free November 20-26

Windows Spatial Audio Review
The newest 1.31 PTR has Windows Spatial Audio re-enabled. Please keep the feedback coming on this feature. These reports have been extremely valuable for us.

1.31 Known Issues List

Friday

Incoming PTR Changes
This post is to track further updates to the PTR as we make them. The following changes are planned for a PTR patch that will probably come on Monday.

Brigitte

Shield Bash
  • Damage reduced from 50 to 5
Inspire Passive
  • Cooldown reduced from 1.5s to 1.0s
  • Duration increased from 5s to 6s
  • Total healing increased from 80 to 100
Dev Notes: Reduces Shield Bash’s damage reduces her total stun combo damage potential while still allowing Whip Shot and her basic melee attacks to retain their full strength. Brigitte is a hybrid tank/healer, and lately we’ve been reducing her effectiveness by reducing the power of her non-healing functionality, but we want to make sure she is still a viable pick so we’re increasing the uptime of her Inspire passive to help increase her overall healing output.

Doomfist

Seismic Slam
  • Victims no longer lose air control while being pulled in.
Skydrop
  • Inner ring damage radius increased from 1.5m to 2.0m. This is the ring where Skydrop deals its full 300 damage.
  • Max damage outside of inner ring decreased from 300 to 200. This is the ring where damage falloff happens, which still reduces the damage down to 15 at max range.
Dev Notes: The PTR Doomfist changes are all about trying to give his enemies more opportunities to effectively fight back, and these changes are no exception. The Skydrop changes will make it harder to secure a “free” kill on heroes without mobility such as Zenyatta or Ana, while still preserving its max potential damage when aimed well or when comboing with other abilities such as Graviton Surge or Sleep Dart.
Overall we’re looking carefully at the amount of crowd control abilities (such as stuns and knockbacks that remove air control) and seeing if we can remove or reduce some of the effectiveness of some of these. Any further changes to this PTR will be posted in this thread as well.

Saturday

Another update?
Hey there, this update fixed a bug that prevented certain locales from accessing the in game shop.
Cheers

Monday

Does Overwatch Legendary Edition use the same save data as Overwatch Origins edition? (PS4)
Yep this will work just fine. Cheers!
Is there anyone managing the @owpathtopro account anymore now that Rob is gone? The account hasn't tweeted in four days, and since then three Contenders regions have started playing. No "we're live" tweets, no promos, no content at all. Can we at least try?
Good call out. I’ll dig into this, thanks posting this here. Cheers.
When will Ashe be available in Competitive?
On the 27th around 11am pacific. Cheers !

OWL News Offseason Free Agency Tracker

Atlanta Reign Expansion Team

Boston Uprising

Chengdu Hunters Expansion Team

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou Charge Expansion Team

Hangzhou Spark Expansion Team

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire Season 1 Champions

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior(NYXL)

Paris Eternal Expansion Team

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant Expansion Team

Vancouver ??? Expansion Team

Washington D.C. ??? Expansion Team

Contenders News

World Cup News South Korea Three-peats

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Overwatch [link] [comments]


2018.10.29 17:14 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch October 22nd - October 29th

Monday

300fps no reduce buffering vs display based cap reduce buffering
Hello Felicity!
Assuming VSync is off in the graphics settings menu, the same FPS limiting logic is used for the display cap vs custom cap.
If your GPU can render a frame end to end in 3.3ms (300fps), the reduce buffering option won’t have an impact. If, however, your GPU takes more than 3.3ms to render a frame, with reduce buffering enabled we won’t let the GPU get more than a second frame ahead.
I’m not aware of issues where reduce buffering can impact streaming or alt-tabbing. :slight_smile: If you let me know what kind of issues you experience from it, I can take a look and see if we can fix them.
Thanks!
Bruce

Tuesday

Video Developer Update October 2018 Update

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – October 23, 2018

300fps no reduce buffering vs display based cap reduce buffering
Thanks all for the info. I’ll take a look at the reduce buffering / alt+tab issue and see if there is something we can do.
Thanks!
Bruce

1.30 Known Issues List

Thursday

"Zarya does a very not good thing when she reloads" Can someone explain this to me?
My little mistake has gained a lot more traction than I was hoping for. At least no one noticed the Known Issues List still listed patch 1.29 instead of 1.30!
As for the bug, it was very simple in why I found it so funny, as she reloaded, her entire body got scrunched up into her armor, kind of like when a turtle tries to hide in it’s shell, but she kept a hand out to wave at you.
I took a screenshot so you can all see, and hopefully satisfy your curiosity:

Friday

Season 12 Ending Soon

New PTR patch nerfed Reaper, not buffed him
We’ve changed the spread pattern and adjusted the distribution of the bullets. This will go to PTR with the next update. All of the changes to Reaper were done with the intention of making him more reliable. None were intended as nerfs.

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – October 26, 2018

PTR Update - 1.8gb
Hey folks PTR patch sizes can often be large due to data format changes. In this case we adjusted the way locale and region specific data is packaged.
This patch does contain some balance tweaks and bug fixes, but it isn’t large due to any secret data preloading.
cheers!
Will there be any changes on these tweaks or is it just the reaper randomization changes?
I believe updated patch notes should be posted soon. Not sure how much more iteration is planned for the 1.30 patch but we’re keeping an eye out for feedback of course. Cheers!
My Username got changed for no Reason
Hi all, we have a fix coming for this issue early next week. Apologies for the hiccup!

Friday

Possible Leak. New competetive mode?
I am also very excited for this! Hope everyone is having a great weekend. Cheers.

Monday

Marcin Rausch's Hero Story

OWL News Offseason Free Agency Tracker

Atlanta Reign Expansion Team

Boston Uprising

Chengdu ??? Expansion Team

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou ??? Expansion Team

Hangzhou ??? Expansion Team

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire Season 1 Champions

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior(NYXL)

Paris ??? Expansion Team

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant Expansion Team

Vancouver ??? Expansion Team

Washington D.C. ??? Expansion Team

Contenders News Trials

World Cup News Pre-Blizzcon Break Top 8 Bracket

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Overwatch [link] [comments]


2018.10.29 17:14 Seagull_No1_Fanboy This Week in Overwatch October 22nd - October 29th

Monday

300fps no reduce buffering vs display based cap reduce buffering
Hello Felicity!
Assuming VSync is off in the graphics settings menu, the same FPS limiting logic is used for the display cap vs custom cap.
If your GPU can render a frame end to end in 3.3ms (300fps), the reduce buffering option won’t have an impact. If, however, your GPU takes more than 3.3ms to render a frame, with reduce buffering enabled we won’t let the GPU get more than a second frame ahead.
I’m not aware of issues where reduce buffering can impact streaming or alt-tabbing. :slight_smile: If you let me know what kind of issues you experience from it, I can take a look and see if we can fix them.
Thanks!
Bruce

Tuesday

Video Developer Update October 2018 Update

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – October 23, 2018

300fps no reduce buffering vs display based cap reduce buffering
Thanks all for the info. I’ll take a look at the reduce buffering / alt+tab issue and see if there is something we can do.
Thanks!
Bruce

1.30 Known Issues List

Thursday

"Zarya does a very not good thing when she reloads" Can someone explain this to me?
My little mistake has gained a lot more traction than I was hoping for. At least no one noticed the Known Issues List still listed patch 1.29 instead of 1.30!
As for the bug, it was very simple in why I found it so funny, as she reloaded, her entire body got scrunched up into her armor, kind of like when a turtle tries to hide in it’s shell, but she kept a hand out to wave at you.
I took a screenshot so you can all see, and hopefully satisfy your curiosity:

Friday

Season 12 Ending Soon

New PTR patch nerfed Reaper, not buffed him
We’ve changed the spread pattern and adjusted the distribution of the bullets. This will go to PTR with the next update. All of the changes to Reaper were done with the intention of making him more reliable. None were intended as nerfs.

Overwatch PTR Patch Notes – October 26, 2018

PTR Update - 1.8gb
Hey folks PTR patch sizes can often be large due to data format changes. In this case we adjusted the way locale and region specific data is packaged.
This patch does contain some balance tweaks and bug fixes, but it isn’t large due to any secret data preloading.
cheers!
Will there be any changes on these tweaks or is it just the reaper randomization changes?
I believe updated patch notes should be posted soon. Not sure how much more iteration is planned for the 1.30 patch but we’re keeping an eye out for feedback of course. Cheers!
My Username got changed for no Reason
Hi all, we have a fix coming for this issue early next week. Apologies for the hiccup!

Friday

Possible Leak. New competetive mode?
I am also very excited for this! Hope everyone is having a great weekend. Cheers.

Monday

Marcin Rausch's Hero Story

OWL News Offseason Free Agency Tracker

Atlanta Reign Expansion Team

Boston Uprising

Chengdu ??? Expansion Team

Dallas Fuel

Florida Mayhem

Guangzhou ??? Expansion Team

Hangzhou ??? Expansion Team

Houston Outlaws

London Spitfire Season 1 Champions

LA Gladiators

LA Valiant

New York Excelsior(NYXL)

Paris ??? Expansion Team

Philadelphia Fusion

SF Shock

Seoul Dynasty

Shanghai Dragons

Toronto Defiant Expansion Team

Vancouver ??? Expansion Team

Washington D.C. ??? Expansion Team

Contenders News Trials

World Cup News Pre-Blizzcon Break Top 8 Bracket

Remaining News

Last Week's Post

submitted by Seagull_No1_Fanboy to Competitiveoverwatch [link] [comments]


2018.10.15 15:03 HockeyPowerRanker /r/hockey NHL Power Rankings Week 2 Storm Rising Edition

/Hockey NHL Power Rankings Week Oct 8, 2018 - Oct 14, 2018

Thank You

Thank you to all of the volunteers doing the power rankings. Each ranker has their own system and have their own reasonings and analyis. It truly is a lot of work.

Rankers

Spoiler

Organizers

Spoiler

Visualization

The visualization contains historical data, so you can see how your team has done over time. Hopefully, we can run this for many years in hopes that we can see the rise and fall of teams by /hockey opinion.
It automatically updates so feel free to bookmark. You can find it here

Process

How does this work? Throughout the course of the week rankers are able to access an app that will allow them to rank teams. At the end of the period we calculate the average ranking for every team and collate all of the analysis provided by rankers.
The app then generates a post that is first proofread and then posted to /hockey!

Rankings (26/31 Rankers Reporting)

Ranking (avg) Team Delta Overall Record Record This Week Comments
1 (2.62) Toronto Maple Leafs 3 5-1-0 3-0-0 If you had told me before the season we would lead in both GF and second in GA....I wouldn't have been super surprised. And that win against Washington was....a little sloppy. But on the other hand, Auston Matthews is on pace for 216 goals this year, and Kapanen has become Grabner with better (although still much to be desired) hands. Let see how long we can keep rolling on this stretch - Pittsburgh and Winnipeg twice in our next 6 games.
2 (3.45) Nashville Predators -1 4-1-0 2-1-0 5 on 5, the Preds are looking strong. While they aren't lighting up the lamp quite as much as some other teams, the offense has been productive and spread nicely across the lineup. Aside from the Calgary game, they've been able to keep steady pressure on the offensive zone; when they haven't had the puck they've been responsible defensively, behind only the Devils in GA/GP. Unfortunately, that strength has not translated as well to special teams, where the Preds are in the bottom third of the league. They began the season 0/15 on the PP, and while they did finally net a couple of PPGs against the Isles it's hard to attribute either to the system proper. The first came very shortly after an offensive zone faceoff while both teams were still setting up, and the second was an EN. It's still very early in the season, so hopefully the PP improves sooner rather then later. Overall this team looks to be establishing itself early, shedding the early season doldrums of the past couple of years.
3 (5.38) Boston Bruins 7 4-1-0 3-0-0 For the love of Pasta, can Brandon Carlo please just score a goal this season!
4 (6.79) Tampa Bay Lightning -3 2-1-0 1-1-0 After starting the season with only 2 goals in 2 games, the Bolts decided to take out their frustration on Blue Jackets. The reunion of the triplets line sparked the offense and Kucherov looks mad as hell for only scoring one goal in three games.
5 (7.79) Carolina Hurricanes 9 4-1-1 2-1-0 It's been a long time since neutral fans have wanted to circle a Canes game on their calendar. The new brand of hockey being played in Raleigh is not only starting to drive home attendance (up18% compared to last year), but is starting the get national attention we've been craving. The Hurricanes are a Top-5 goal scoring team for the first time since the 05-06 Cup winning season, and it is all thanks to Sebastian Aho. I could spend hours talking about how great he is, but we'll have the rest of the season for that. Major concerns are as usual: goaltending, special teams, and having to listen to Tripp Tracy do color. TAKE WARNING
6 (8.66) Washington Capitals -3 2-2-1 1-2-0 Biggest issue so far is depth, which Wilson's absence exacerbates. Andre Burakovsky is in the last year of his 3m AAV contract and looks closer to playing himself out of the league than earning a raise. Granted he's been given about 10 minutes a night and an inconsistent opposite winger but his play is about as bad as it's ever been for the streaky winger. Djoos and Orpik, similarly, are playing as bad as they ever have and it's hard to say it's all Orpik's fault. Aside from that the hockey is fun and the stress is trifling. Kuzy looks like a top 5 player (and a top 5 quote) and the rest of the top 6 / top 4 is gelling. Connolly looked lost on the top line, which is honestly fair, and Todd recognized that and put 24 yo Chandler Stephenson up there instead. That's a quick change and it's great to see a HC trust the youth. The last five games were against playoff teams and we basically went .500. The next 8 games are against not-playoff teams. Let's get our weight up eh go Caps.
7 (8.69) Winnipeg Jets -2 3-2-0 2-1-0 Slow start for the Jets overall but they've been getting bailed out by solid goaltending from Hellebuyck and a surprise stellar performance from backup Brossoit. Fun fact Brossoit trains with Hellebuyck in the off-season so maybe some of that magic rubbed off on him! Either way it should only be a matter of time before those missed 2 on 0s and goalposts turn into points on the score sheet. The shining light has been the PK job by the Jets, boasting a 6th best 86.4% success rate. They've gotten plenty of ice time with the league-leading 93 PIMs the Jets have taken too! Expect the boys in blue to pick it up in the weeks to come.
8 (9.79) Anaheim Ducks - 4-1-1 2-1-1 John Gibson is, in fact, human. He allowed 4 goals on 44 shots through 2 periods in a loss on sat. If only they could ice a team in front of him capable of limiting the SOG to 50. Lundestrom is quickly looking like a sneaky good late first round pick. Comtois continues his great start to his career. Kesler comes back and scores within his first few shifts. The ducks are not bad. But they still have some tweaks to make defensively to be dominant. Stay tuned, should be an interesting year.
9 (10) Dallas Stars -2 3-1-0 1-1-0 High scoring loss to my #1 for the week and a good game against Anaheim, my #8. I don't think the scorelines don't really reflect how the Stars measured up against each team this week: - The TOR game was winnable throughout and it can partially be explained away with several players having bad games, Bishop included. - The ANA game was massively one-sided through the first 2 periods. The Stars were clearly the better team, but Dobby vs puckluck and Gibson allowed the Ducks to jump to an early lead. This easily could've been a blowout had Bishop started. I'm a believer. The Stars are real contenders. If you don't believe me, watch our games this week.
10 (10.66) Pittsburgh Penguins -1 2-1-1 1-0-1 If, in the eternal words of Meat Loaf, two out of three ain't bad, then it stands to reason that three out of four is even more not badder. Schultz got destroyed which is bad. Compound that with Matt Murray's concussion and we're good on our standard allocation of injuries for the first two weeks of the season. Despite that the last few games were not total and complete dumpster fires. Until the third period the Pens looked like the Pens against Vegas, and the Montreal game was downright exciting until the shoot out. I'll put Optimism at 7/10 and Concern at 2/10 for now. Also Phil Kessel scored a hat trick. On my birthday. So I got that going for me.
11 (11) Colorado Avalanche - 3-1-1 1-1-1 Mixed week for the Avs, Being able to play on the road was a big issue last season and so far we showed up for one game against Buffalo and didn't against Columbus. The good news is the Top Line is still finding ways to score, but is not carrying the team. JT Compher has been shooting, along with Kerfoot. Colin Wilson looks like a new man. Some players though don't seem to be playing in every game, Soderberg is the biggest issue this way some games he looks great others like Calgary and Columbus are just bad. Additionally Matt Nieto has looked rough to start the season. On the Plus side Goaltending has been stellar especially Varly. As for the Calgary game you cannot play one period and then relax the rest of the game. We were lucky to get a point.
12 (11.52) Chicago Blackhawks 4 3-0-2 1-0-1 Alex DeBrincat (6G, 3A), Jonathan Toews (5G, 4A), and Patrick Kane (5G, 3A) lead the Blackhawks to a 3-0-2 start, with all 5 games going to OT. Duncan Keith played in his 1000th NHL game. Alexandre Fortin made his NHL debut. Henri Jokiharju has seen his role increase by being added to the PP, while Brandon Saad was relegated to 4th line duty on Saturday. Fans are eyeing Thursday's game (vs. ARI) as the possible return of Corey Crawford.
13 (12) San Jose Sharks -7 2-3-1 1-2-1 Not the start to the season Sharks fans had been hoping for, but not anything to freak out over yet. Kane has been an amazing signing so far, and Labanc and Meier are looking better than last season. Hoping the defence starts clicking soon and living up to their potential.
14 (12.41) Columbus Blue Jackets -1 3-2-0 2-1-0 The first "real" test on paper this season and I don't think a bigger egg could've been laid. 8-2 vs a Tampa team that had been struggling to score. Torts said in the post game interview after the win in Florida that our second period in that game showed how arrogant and stubborn the team was with what they thought they could do in a game in the NHL and it will be a great teaching moment. Leaving Bob in for all 8 of these goals made a similar statement to the team -- this can't continue. Duclair has been quite the addition to the team, however. I've been impressed with him every game.
15 (13.66) New Jersey Devils 2 3-0-0 2-0-0 Just as we all predicted the devils would start the season with 3 straight wins without Taylor Hall scoring a single goal. Kyle Palmieri is making a great case for the Cy Young so far this season.
16 (15.48) Calgary Flames 2 3-2-0 2-1-0
17 (17.86) Philadelphia Flyers -2 2-3-0 1-2-0 The flyers were exactly what I expected them to be. Hot one game, not as hot the next. Solid 6/10 between both games. After a sufficient beat down of the VGK, we proceeded to not understand passing except on the power play, not understand defense except for Provorov and Ghost, but man did Elliot stand on his head. He was the best player in both games. Giroux is now sole possession of 3rd assists Flyers All Time, rookie 3C Vorobyev potted his first NHL goal( and assist), JVR still has to get adjusted, and Simmonds looks pretty decent coming off of a list of injuries longer than most users of hockey rap sheets. Speaking of Sheetz, Wawa is better.
18 (18.79) Vegas Golden Knights -6 2-4-0 1-3-0
19 (19) St. Louis Blues 1 1-2-2 1-1-1 Hey, we won a game! And then we quickly lost to our rivals in a similar fashion to the game we last played against them... which was a week ago. Anyway, the Blues look to pick up a win in their second of a back-to-back, against the Ducks this time. The team's potential success is becoming easier to see, especially with Allen putting up one of his best goaltending performances in recent memory in our second game against Chicago.
20 (19.14) Los Angeles Kings 1 2-2-1 1-2-0 Campbell has played well in Quick's absence, with the exception of getting yanked on Saturday against Ottawa. The Kings will face a stiff task on Monday as they'll face the RED HOT MAPLE LEAFS. In other news, Jeff Carter is now playing wing on the "third line", and the Kings PP still hasn't scored and is off to an 0 for 18 start. Kings need a win in Toronto, but it feels unlikely.
21 (20.03) Buffalo Sabres 3 3-2-0 2-1-0 We started off this past week with a surprising (to me) win against a Vegas team that is having a rough season so far. We haven't been putting up many shots on goal, but we have been finding the back of the net anyway. We played Arizona on Saturday, who has the opposite problem. They have a team shooting percentage of 1.37%, while we are running at 8.33%. We've also got a .925% save percentage between Hutton and Ullmark, which is good for sixth in the league. PP is on fire, PK is OK, Bogo is on IR.
22 (21.43) Montreal Canadiens 1 2-1-1 1-1-0 Strong play against good teams. Price looking like the 10M man he is.
23 (21.45) Minnesota Wild -1 1-1-2 1-0-1 After only 4 games to start the season a troubling trend is emerging. The Wild are getting routinely outshot and outchanced so far. If Dubnyk had been playing anything less than a goalie with Vezina aspirations this team could be 0-4-0. May his knees be blessed for all days to come.
24 (21.62) Vancouver Canucks 3 3-2-0 2-1-0 It is such a mysterious place, the land of tears. The injury to Vancouver’s little prince absolutely sucked the wind out of what has been maybe the most exciting season start in half a decade. Otherwise, the Canucks were 2 -1 this week, sweeping Florida. Horvat has continued to produce, Boeser looks ready to break out of his “slump” just in time for his return to Pittsburgh, and Edler is ~quietly~having a tremendous start to the season. Hats off to Nilsson (a good man) for a great road trip thus far. Fingers crossed for a smooth recovery for Petey.
25 (23.69) New York Islanders - 2-2-0 1-1-0 Islanders showed a much improved defense and organization vs the Sharks en route to the 4-0 win, but were sloppy and not ready when they played in Nashville following their four days off. Trotz is bringing much needed coaching and organization to this franchise which hasn't had a coach of his quality in about 15 years. The handling of Kovar only to sign Gionta a few days later is puzzling and not something fans are happy about, but so far the first two weeks have shown the Islanders won't be as bad as expected, and Barzal has no concerns running as the teams 1C.
26 (25) Florida Panthers -6 0-2-1 0-2-0 Luongo is gone and Reimer is starting slow again. Send help thx
27 (25.45) Edmonton Oilers -1 1-2-0 1-1-0 We won against one of the worst teams in the league to collect win 1. Now we just need to beat the toughest teams in the league for this month. If we come out .500, mark my words, we will make the playoffs. Once the worst of the schedule is out of the way, the Oilers have the easiest schedule. There are still too many question marks for IF we can got .500. The defense is shaky, the offence is McDavid, the powerplay is McDavid, and the wingers were even McDavid at one point in the Rangers game. McDavid is a god among men. It's a blessing, and the fact that they need him to score or assist for any offence is saddening. But the team has slowly and steadily improved for the past 3 games. Now if we could only fire Benning into the Sun.
28 (25.72) Ottawa Senators - 2-2-1 1-2-0 Erik Karlsson Dylan Demelo
29 (28.45) Arizona Coyotes - 1-3-0 1-1-0
30 (29.1) New York Rangers 1 1-4-0 1-1-0 Watching the Rangers has been seriously frustrating this season. Not because of the losses, though. Any reasonable Rangers fan knew that there would be plenty of losses this year. The team has done a good job of generating scoring chances, while not relenting in the face of adversity, and Hank is playing his best hockey in years. Converting on those chances has been an exercise in futility, however. Combine the extremely questionable calls that have swung the losses to Buffalo, Nashville and Edmonton, and you have a very grumpy fan base. The fact is that the Rangers don't have enough talent to overcome such adversity in critical moments. But this team is still working hard, and has improved on the costly turnovers and defensive play that were hallmarks of the final year with Alain Vigneault. Young future core pieces Brett Howden, Brady Skjei and Filip Chytil have impressed at times. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is still a ways away.
31 (29.72) Detroit Red Wings -1 0-3-2 0-2-1 The season started as expected. The young blue line shows promise, but lacks polish. Jimmy Howard had a great first game, and while the team looked a little lost at times, overall the promise of growth was apparent.
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